- λ home
- 1.95
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.90
- P(over 2.5)
- 53%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 10.7%
Navalcarnero vs Getafe II prediction & xG model: Navalcarnero or draw
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Navalcarnero 59% · draw 25% · Getafe II 16%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Navalcarnero v Getafe II: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Navalcarnero v Getafe II are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.15 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.69 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.90 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.95, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Navalcarnero | – | 68.0% | 45.8% | 58.7% |
| X Draw | – | 24.0% | 27.4% | 25.4% |
| 2 Getafe II | – | 8.0% | 26.8% | 15.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Navalcarnero | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +14.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.4% | 3.93 | 3.26 | 30.7% | -17.1% | |
| 2 · Getafe II | 15.9% | 6.30 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -47.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X pick | 84.1% | 1.19 | 1.22 | 82.0% | +2.6% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -31.4% | |
| 12 | 74.6% | 1.34 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Navalcarnero | 78.7% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Getafe II | 21.3% | 4.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -17.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 54.9% | -3.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -12.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.4% | 3.18 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -4.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -11.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -4.2% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -13.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.9% | 2.57 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.1% | 5.85 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.841 × 1.22 − 1 = +0.026 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.119 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Navalcarnero | Getafe II |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWDD | WLDDLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Navalcarnero ahead at 59%, against 16% for Getafe II and 25% for the draw. Standings: Navalcarnero 7th on 16, Getafe II 16th on 8.
Form
Navalcarnero have two wins from their last six (D D W W D D). Latest: 2–2 at home to Real Betis. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. No shut-outs in that run.
Getafe II have one win from their last six (W L D D L D). Latest: 2–0 at home to SS Reyes. Per match: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Navalcarnero 1.95 · Getafe II 0.95 · total 2.90. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 53%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Model selection: Navalcarnero or draw, probability 84%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.19. Most probable score: Navalcarnero 1–0 Getafe II. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 5 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Numancia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  Salamanca UDS | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 3 |  SS Reyes | 10 | +4 | 19 |
| 4 |  Conquense | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  A Madrid III | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Real Valladolid II | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Navalcarnero | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  CF Talavera | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Albacete II | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Real Madrid III | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Atlético Tordesillas | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 |  RSD Alcalá | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Gimnástica Segoviana | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Atlético Paso | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Getafe II | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 |  Real Ávila | 10 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Calvo Sotelo | 10 | -14 | 6 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 5 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Navalcarnero vs Getafe II?
The Model pick is Navalcarnero or draw with a model probability of 84, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Navalcarnero v Getafe II probabilities?
Navalcarnero win 59%, draw 25%, Getafe II win 16%.
What is the most probable score for Navalcarnero vs Getafe II?
Navalcarnero 1–0 Getafe II is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Navalcarnero vs Getafe II?
Navalcarnero 1.95, Getafe II 0.95 – over 2.5 at 53%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Navalcarnero vs Getafe II?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 16:30 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 5.