- λ home
- 1.24
- λ away
- 1.58
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Real Valladolid II vs Numancia prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Real Valladolid II 31% · draw 22% · Numancia 47%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Real Valladolid II v Numancia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Real Valladolid II v Numancia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.95 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.71 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.24, λaway = 1.58
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.8%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Real Valladolid II | – | 32.0% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.3% | 22.3% |
| 2 Numancia | – | 50.0% | 41.8% | 46.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Real Valladolid II | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2.99 | 33.4% | -6.9% | |
| X · Draw | 22.3% | 4.48 | 3.16 | 31.6% | -29.4% | |
| 2 · Numancia | 46.6% | 2.15 | 2.14 | 46.7% | -0.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 53.4% | 1.87 | 1.54 | 64.9% | -17.7% | |
| X2 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -11.8% | |
| 12 | 77.7% | 1.29 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -2.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Real Valladolid II | 40.1% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Numancia | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -7.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.4% | 4.11 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -15.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -6.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | 2.09 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 31.1% | 3.21 | 2.92 | 34.2% | -9.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.31 | 76.3% | -9.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -3.7% | |
| BTTS no | 41.3% | 2.42 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -14.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.8% | 4.03 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 34.2% | 2.92 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.756 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.077 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Real Valladolid II | Numancia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWDW | WWDLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Numancia narrowly ahead at 47%; Real Valladolid II 31%. Standings: Real Valladolid II 6th on 17, Numancia 1st on 19.
Form
Sequence for Real Valladolid II: L W D W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–3 away at Real Madrid III. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Numancia, last six: W W D L D D – two wins in total. Latest: 6–0 at home to Calvo Sotelo. 2.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Real Valladolid II 1.24 · Numancia 1.58 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 76%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.32. Most probable score: Real Valladolid II 1–2 Numancia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Segunda División RFEF Group 5 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Numancia | 10 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |  Salamanca UDS | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 3 |  SS Reyes | 10 | +4 | 19 |
| 4 |  Conquense | 9 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  A Madrid III | 10 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Real Valladolid II | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Navalcarnero | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  CF Talavera | 9 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 |  Albacete II | 10 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Real Madrid III | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Atlético Tordesillas | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 |  RSD Alcalá | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 |  Gimnástica Segoviana | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 |  Atlético Paso | 10 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |  Getafe II | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 |  Real Ávila | 10 | -10 | 7 |
| 18 |  Calvo Sotelo | 10 | -14 | 6 |
More Segunda División RFEF Group 5 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Real Valladolid II vs Numancia?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 76, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Real Valladolid II v Numancia probabilities?
Real Valladolid II win 31%, draw 22%, Numancia win 47%.
What is the most probable score for Real Valladolid II vs Numancia?
Real Valladolid II 1–2 Numancia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Real Valladolid II vs Numancia?
Real Valladolid II 1.24, Numancia 1.58 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Real Valladolid II vs Numancia?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Segunda División RFEF Group 5.