- λ home
- 1.80
- λ away
- 1.40
- Σλ total
- 3.20
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 63%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.3%
Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Unión Adarve 46% · draw 24% · Las Rozas 30%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Unión Adarve v Las Rozas: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Unión Adarve v Las Rozas are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unión Adarve (home) | 1.75 | 1.11 | 0.99 | 1.92 |
| Las Rozas (away) | 1.48 | 1.25 | 0.81 | 1.49 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.75 × 1.11 × 0.99 ≈ 1.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.20 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.80, λaway = 1.40
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 46.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 30.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Unión Adarve | 47.4% | 52.0% | 41.4% | 46.0% |
| X Draw | 23.0% | 18.0% | 28.6% | 24.2% |
| 2 Las Rozas | 29.6% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 29.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Unión Adarve | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 24.2% | 4.14 | 3.12 | 32.1% | -24.6% | |
| 2 · Las Rozas | 29.9% | 3.35 | 2.97 | 33.7% | -11.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -10.2% | |
| X2 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -17.3% | |
| 12 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Unión Adarve | 60.6% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Las Rozas | 39.4% | 2.54 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.24 | 80.6% | -3.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.1% | 4.52 | 3.34 | 29.9% | -26.1% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.84 | 54.3% | +2.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -19.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 3.08 | 32.5% | +6.3% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -16.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.66 | 60.2% | +4.9% | |
| BTTS no | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -26.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.2% | 2.76 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.632 × 1.66 − 1 = +0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.075 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Unión Adarve | Las Rozas |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWL | DLWDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Unión Adarve ahead at 46%, against 30% for Las Rozas and 24% for the draw. Standings: Unión Adarve 7th on 16, Las Rozas 4th on 18.
Form
Unión Adarve, last six: L W D W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Real Aranjuez. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Las Rozas: D L W D W W, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Torrejón. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Las Rozas 0–2 Unión Adarve. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Unión Adarve 1.80 · Las Rozas 1.40 · total 3.20. Goals expected – 56% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Both teams to score, probability 63%, odds 1.66 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Unión Adarve 2–1 Las Rozas. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 3 May 2026Las Rozas0–2Unión Adarve
Tercera División RFEF Group 7 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Móstoles | 10 | +17 | 23 |
| 2 |  Leganés II | 11 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 |  Colonia Moscardó | 10 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Las Rozas | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 5 |  Galapagar | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Cala Pozuelo | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 |  Unión Adarve | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Fuenlabrada | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 9 |  Trival Valderas | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Pozuelo Alarcón | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Torrejón | 10 | +7 | 14 |
| 12 |  Parla Escuela | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Real Aranjuez | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano II | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  RC Alcobendas | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 |  Alcobendas Sport | 11 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 |  SS Reyes II | 10 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Villanueva Pardillo | 10 | -19 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 7 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.66 by the bookmakers.
What are the Unión Adarve v Las Rozas probabilities?
Unión Adarve win 46%, draw 24%, Las Rozas win 30%.
What is the most probable score for Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas?
Unión Adarve 2–1 Las Rozas is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas?
Unión Adarve 1.80, Las Rozas 1.40 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 63%.
What time is Unión Adarve vs Las Rozas?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 7.