- λ home
- 1.97
- λ away
- 1.07
- Σλ total
- 3.04
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.1%
Colonia Moscardó vs Galapagar prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Colonia Moscardó 59% · draw 20% · Galapagar 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Colonia Moscardó v Galapagar: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Colonia Moscardó v Galapagar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.35 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.77 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.04 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.97, λaway = 1.07
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.1%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Colonia Moscardó | – | 63.0% | 53.1% | 58.8% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 24.9% | 20.3% |
| 2 Galapagar | – | 20.0% | 22.0% | 20.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.121 → 12.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Colonia Moscardó | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -1.2% | |
| X · Draw | 20.3% | 4.92 | 3.58 | 27.9% | -27.3% | |
| 2 · Galapagar | 20.8% | 4.80 | 4.05 | 24.7% | -15.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.2% | 1.26 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -9.8% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -21.8% | |
| 12 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -5.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Colonia Moscardó | 73.8% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Galapagar | 26.2% | 3.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -20.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -2.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -14.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.83 | 35.3% | -3.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -12.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -3.1% | |
| BTTS no | 43.0% | 2.33 | 1.96 | 51.0% | -15.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.9% | 2.33 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.2% | 2.62 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.0% | 5.27 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.774 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Colonia Moscardó | Galapagar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWDDDW | WDWLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-4-0 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Colonia Moscardó ahead at 59%, against 21% for Galapagar and 20% for the draw. Standings: Colonia Moscardó 2nd on 18, Galapagar 4th on 18.
Form
Sequence for Colonia Moscardó: D W D D D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–2 away at Leganés II. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Galapagar have three wins from their last six (W D W L W L). Latest: 2–0 at home to SS Reyes II. 2.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Colonia Moscardó 1.97 · Galapagar 1.07 · total 3.04. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Over 1.5 goals, probability 77%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.29. Most probable score: Colonia Moscardó 2–1 Galapagar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Tercera División RFEF Group 7 table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Móstoles | 10 | +17 | 23 |
| 2 |  Colonia Moscardó | 10 | +10 | 18 |
| 3 |  Las Rozas | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 |  Galapagar | 10 | +5 | 18 |
| 5 |  Cala Pozuelo | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unión Adarve | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Leganés II | 10 | +7 | 15 |
| 8 |  Trival Valderas | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Pozuelo Alarcón | 10 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Torrejón | 10 | +7 | 14 |
| 11 |  Fuenlabrada | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Parla Escuela | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |  Real Aranjuez | 10 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano II | 10 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 |  RC Alcobendas | 10 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 |  Alcobendas Sport | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 |  SS Reyes II | 10 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Villanueva Pardillo | 10 | -19 | 7 |
More Tercera División RFEF Group 7 predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Colonia Moscardó vs Galapagar?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 77, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Colonia Moscardó v Galapagar probabilities?
Colonia Moscardó win 59%, draw 20%, Galapagar win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Colonia Moscardó vs Galapagar?
Colonia Moscardó 2–1 Galapagar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Colonia Moscardó vs Galapagar?
Colonia Moscardó 1.97, Galapagar 1.07 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Colonia Moscardó vs Galapagar?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 12:00 WAT – Tercera División RFEF Group 7.