- λ home
- 2.07
- λ away
- 0.99
- Σλ total
- 3.07
- P(over 2.5)
- 57%
- P(BTTS)
- 62%
- Modal score
- 2–0 10.0%
FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United prediction & xG model: FC Ryukyu to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
FC Ryukyu v Kochi United: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipFC Ryukyu to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for FC Ryukyu v Kochi United are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (16 and 16 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ryukyu (home) | 1.52 | 1.10 | 1.46 | 2.43 |
| Kochi United (away) | 1.23 | 0.65 | 1.07 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.10 × 1.46 ≈ 2.43
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.94 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.85 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.07 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.07, λaway = 0.99
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.3%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 10.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 FC Ryukyu | 71.5% | 54.0% | 39.1% | 53.8% |
| X Draw | 17.5% | 17.0% | 27.2% | 21.4% |
| 2 Kochi United | 11.1% | 29.0% | 33.8% | 24.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · FC Ryukyu pick | 53.8% | 1.86 | 2.28 | 43.9% | +22.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.4% | 4.67 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -29.7% | |
| 2 · Kochi United | 24.8% | 4.04 | 2.64 | 37.9% | -34.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 75.2% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +1.6% | |
| X2 | 46.2% | 2.17 | 1.47 | 68.0% | -32.1% | |
| 12 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB FC Ryukyu | 68.5% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Kochi United | 31.5% | 3.17 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -7.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.3% | 4.70 | 3.82 | 26.2% | -18.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.69 | 59.2% | -4.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.01 | 49.8% | -13.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -5.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -11.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | 1.56 | 64.1% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 38.2% | 2.62 | 2.18 | 45.9% | -16.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.4% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.0% | 5.87 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.538 × 2.28 − 1 = +0.227 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.177 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | FC Ryukyu | Kochi United |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLWWWW | LWLDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-0-2 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
FC Ryukyu ahead at 54%, against 25% for Kochi United and 21% for the draw. Standings: FC Ryukyu 11th on 23, Kochi United 20th on 9.
Form
FC Ryukyu, last six: L L W W W W – four wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Fukushima United. 2.2 goals a match in that spell.
Sequence for Kochi United: L W L D L L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–5 away at Nara Club. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG FC Ryukyu 2.07 · Kochi United 0.99 · total 3.07. Goals expected – 57% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: FC Ryukyu to win, probability 54%, odds 2.28 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: FC Ryukyu 2–0 Kochi United. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Gifu | 17 | +14 | 32 |
| 2 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 4 |  Sagamihara | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Kitakyushu | 17 | -2 | 22 |
| 13 |  Fukushima United | 17 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 17 | -3 | 18 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 17 | -19 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?
The Model pick is FC Ryukyu to win with a model probability of 54, priced around 2.28 by the bookmakers.
What are the FC Ryukyu v Kochi United probabilities?
FC Ryukyu win 54%, draw 21%, Kochi United win 25%.
What is the most probable score for FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?
FC Ryukyu 2–0 Kochi United is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?
FC Ryukyu 2.07, Kochi United 0.99 – over 2.5 at 57%, BTTS at 62%.
What time is FC Ryukyu vs Kochi United?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 08:00 WAT, at Okinawa Athletic Park Stadium – J3 League.