- λ home
- 1.02
- λ away
- 1.92
- Σλ total
- 2.95
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–1 10.3%
Parceiro Nagano vs Ehime FC prediction & xG model: Ehime FC to win
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Parceiro Nagano 21% · draw 20% · Ehime FC 59%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Parceiro Nagano v Ehime FC: who are you backing?
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Parceiro Nagano v Ehime FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 3.09 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.83 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.95 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.02, λaway = 1.92
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 19.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 58.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 10.3%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Parceiro Nagano | – | 17.0% | 25.7% | 20.7% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 25.6% | 20.0% |
| 2 Ehime FC | – | 67.0% | 48.7% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.123 → 12.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Parceiro Nagano | 20.7% | 4.84 | 3.46 | 28.9% | -28.5% | |
| X · Draw | 20.0% | 4.99 | 3.48 | 28.7% | -30.3% | |
| 2 · Ehime FC pick | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.83 | 54.6% | +8.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.7% | 2.46 | 1.74 | 57.5% | -29.2% | |
| X2 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.0% | |
| 12 | 80.0% | 1.25 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -4.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Parceiro Nagano | 25.8% | 3.87 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ehime FC | 74.2% | 1.35 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.19 | 84.0% | -7.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.76 | 26.6% | -15.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.71 | 58.5% | -5.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 2.22 | 1.98 | 50.5% | -11.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.5% | 2.98 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -8.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -10.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -0.7% | |
| BTTS no | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -19.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 18.5% | 5.41 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 42.7% | 2.34 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.593 × 1.83 − 1 = +0.085 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.103 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Parceiro Nagano | Ehime FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWWLLW | WLLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ehime FC narrowly ahead at 59%; Parceiro Nagano 21%. Standings: Parceiro Nagano 10th on 23, Ehime FC 7th on 29.
Form
Sequence for Parceiro Nagano: L W W L L W, so three victories in six. Latest: 0–1 at home to Kamatamare Sanuki. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Ehime FC: W L L L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Biwako Shiga. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.5 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Parceiro Nagano 1.02 · Ehime FC 1.92 · total 2.95. Goals expected – 55% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Model selection: Ehime FC to win, probability 59%, odds 1.83 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Parceiro Nagano 0–1 Ehime FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
J3 League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nara Club | 16 | +12 | 32 |
| 2 |  FC Gifu | 16 | +14 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sagamihara | 16 | +11 | 31 |
| 4 |  Kagoshima United | 16 | +10 | 31 |
| 5 |  Renofa Yamaguchi | 16 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Osaka | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 7 |  Ehime FC | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 8 |  Roasso Kumamoto | 16 | +6 | 24 |
| 9 |  Kanazawa | 16 | +7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Parceiro Nagano | 16 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 |  FC Ryukyu | 16 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Tochigi SC | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kitakyushu | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 |  Fukushima United | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 |  Matsumoto Yamaga | 16 | -3 | 17 |
| 16 |  Biwako Shiga | 16 | -9 | 17 |
| 17 |  Gainare Tottori | 16 | -15 | 15 |
| 18 |  Kamatamare Sanuki | 16 | -10 | 14 |
| 19 |  Thespakusatsu Gunma | 16 | -18 | 13 |
| 20 |  Kochi United | 16 | -26 | 9 |
More J3 League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Parceiro Nagano vs Ehime FC?
The Model pick is Ehime FC to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.83 by the bookmakers.
What are the Parceiro Nagano v Ehime FC probabilities?
Parceiro Nagano win 21%, draw 20%, Ehime FC win 59%.
What is the most probable score for Parceiro Nagano vs Ehime FC?
Parceiro Nagano 0–1 Ehime FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Parceiro Nagano vs Ehime FC?
Parceiro Nagano 1.02, Ehime FC 1.92 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Parceiro Nagano vs Ehime FC?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Nagano U Stadium – J3 League.