- λ home
- 1.83
- λ away
- 0.90
- Σλ total
- 2.72
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.0%
Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FC prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Sutherland Sharks 62% · draw 17% · Canberra FC 21%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Sutherland Sharks v Canberra FC: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Sutherland Sharks v Canberra FC are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.32 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.72 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.83, λaway = 0.90
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 18.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sutherland Sharks | – | 63.0% | 60.5% | 61.9% |
| X Draw | – | 15.0% | 20.7% | 17.4% |
| 2 Canberra FC | – | 22.0% | 18.8% | 20.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.117 → 11.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sutherland Sharks | 61.9% | 1.61 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -8.3% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.75 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -24.7% | |
| 2 · Canberra FC | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.75 | 21.1% | -1.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -11.9% | |
| X2 | 38.1% | 2.63 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -1.1% | |
| 12 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -7.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sutherland Sharks | 75.0% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Canberra FC | 25.0% | 4.00 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -11.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.83 | 5.50 | 18.2% | +13.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -16.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +10.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.7% | 2.73 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -23.0% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 63.3% | 1.58 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +5.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -4.0% | |
| BTTS no | 38.8% | 2.58 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -12.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.5% | 2.47 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.8% | 5.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.633 × 1.67 − 1 = +0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.086 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sutherland Sharks | Canberra FC |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWLDL | WLLDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sutherland Sharks at 62%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Sutherland Sharks 3rd on 4, Canberra FC 4th on 4.
Form
Sequence for Sutherland Sharks: D L W L D L, so one victory in six. Latest: 0–0 away at South Melbourne. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Canberra FC, last six: W L L D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Sydney United. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Oct 2026): Canberra FC 0–2 Sutherland Sharks. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sutherland Sharks 1.83 · Canberra FC 0.90 · total 2.72. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 63%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Sutherland Sharks 1–0 Canberra FC. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 24 Oct 2026Canberra FC0–2Sutherland Sharks
Australian Championship table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Melbourne | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Sydney United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Sutherland Sharks | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 |  Canberra FC | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 1 |  Wests APIA | 5 | +8 | 13 |
| 2 |  Broadmeadow Magic | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Avondale | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 |  Adelaide City | 5 | -8 | 1 |
| 1 |  Bayswater City | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 |  Oakleigh Cannons | 5 | +3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Marconi Stallions | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 4 |  Sydney Olympic | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 |  Preston Lions | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 2 |  Lions | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Wollongong Wolves | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 4 |  South Hobart | 4 | -4 | 3 |
More Australian Championship predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FC?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sutherland Sharks v Canberra FC probabilities?
Sutherland Sharks win 62%, draw 17%, Canberra FC win 21%.
What is the most probable score for Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FC?
Sutherland Sharks 1–0 Canberra FC is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FC?
Sutherland Sharks 1.83, Canberra FC 0.90 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Sutherland Sharks vs Canberra FC?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 05:00 WAT, at Seymour Shaw Park – Australian Championship.