- λ home
- 1.81
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 2.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 51%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.7%
Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Comunicaciones 58% · draw 23% · Cobán Imperial 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Comunicaciones v Cobán Imperial: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Comunicaciones v Cobán Imperial are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.81 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.81, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 58.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.1%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Comunicaciones | – | 61.0% | 53.7% | 57.9% |
| X Draw | – | 21.0% | 26.1% | 23.1% |
| 2 Cobán Imperial | – | 18.0% | 20.3% | 19.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Comunicaciones | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.68 | 59.5% | -2.7% | |
| X · Draw | 23.1% | 4.32 | 3.46 | 28.9% | -20.0% | |
| 2 · Cobán Imperial | 19.0% | 5.28 | 4.45 | 22.5% | -15.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.0% | 1.23 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -9.2% | |
| X2 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -18.8% | |
| 12 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -7.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Comunicaciones | 75.3% | 1.33 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Cobán Imperial | 24.7% | 4.06 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -7.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -15.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -7.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -10.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.4% | 1.42 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -9.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -0.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.89 | 52.9% | -16.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.8% | 2.39 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.6% | 5.69 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.741 × 1.25 − 1 = -0.074 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Comunicaciones | Cobán Imperial |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWLL | LWWWLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Comunicaciones 58%, draw 23%, Cobán Imperial 19%. Standings: Comunicaciones 4th on 35, Cobán Imperial 6th on 32.
Form
Sequence for Comunicaciones: W W L W L L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at Marquense. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Cobán Imperial have four wins from their last six (L W W W L W). Latest: 0–1 at home to Xelajú. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Previous 2: Comunicaciones 0, Cobán Imperial 1, drawn 1, 3.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Sep 2026): Cobán Imperial 2–2 Comunicaciones. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Comunicaciones 1.81 · Cobán Imperial 0.93 · total 2.74. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 51%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 74%, odds 1.25 v fair 1.35. Most probable score: Comunicaciones 2–0 Cobán Imperial. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 13 Sep 2026Cobán Imperial2–2Comunicaciones
- 15 Mar 2026Cobán Imperial2–0Comunicaciones
Liga Nacional table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 74, priced around 1.25 by the bookmakers.
What are the Comunicaciones v Cobán Imperial probabilities?
Comunicaciones win 58%, draw 23%, Cobán Imperial win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial?
Comunicaciones 2–0 Cobán Imperial is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial?
Comunicaciones 1.81, Cobán Imperial 0.93 – over 2.5 at 51%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 00:00 WAT, at Estadio Doroteo Guamuch Flores – Liga Nacional.