- λ home
- 2.13
- λ away
- 0.60
- Σλ total
- 2.73
- P(over 2.5)
- 55%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 2–0 14.8%
Spezia vs Vado prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Spezia 73% · draw 17% · Vado 9%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Spezia v Vado: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Spezia v Vado are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.38 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.02 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.73 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.13, λaway = 0.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 17.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 9.2%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 14.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Spezia | – | 74.0% | 72.0% | 73.2% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| 2 Vado | – | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Spezia | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.5% | |
| X · Draw | 17.4% | 5.74 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -12.9% | |
| 2 · Vado | 9.4% | 10.62 | 9.00 | 11.1% | -15.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 90.6% | 1.10 | 1.03 | 97.1% | -6.7% | |
| X2 | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -8.7% | |
| 12 | 82.6% | 1.21 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -8.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Spezia | 88.6% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Vado | 11.4% | 8.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -9.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | 4.50 | 22.2% | +1.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.25 | 44.4% | +1.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33.4% | 3.00 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -16.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 66.6% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -0.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +4.4% | |
| BTTS no | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -16.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.7% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.0% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 10.2% | 9.78 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.666 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.001 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Spezia | Vado |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | LDWDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Spezia 73% to win. Standings: Spezia 1st on 35, Vado 13th on 16.
Form
Spezia, last six: W W W D W W – five wins in total. Latest: 4–0 away at Ostia Mare. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Vado have three wins from their last six (L D W D W W). Latest: 1–3 at home to Ravenna. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Spezia 3–0 Vado. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Spezia 2.13 · Vado 0.60 · total 2.73. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 55%, BTTS 50%.
Model selection
Model selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Spezia 2–0 Vado. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 2 Sep 2026Spezia3–0Vado
Serie C Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Livorno | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 13 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Latina | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 13 | -3 | 13 |
| 17 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 |  Gubbio | 13 | -12 | 8 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 13 | -16 | 5 |
More Serie C Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Spezia vs Vado?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Spezia v Vado probabilities?
Spezia win 73%, draw 17%, Vado win 9%.
What is the most probable score for Spezia vs Vado?
Spezia 2–0 Vado is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Spezia vs Vado?
Spezia 2.13, Vado 0.60 – over 2.5 at 55%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Spezia vs Vado?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Alberto Picco – Serie C Girone B.