- λ home
- 2.06
- λ away
- 0.73
- Σλ total
- 2.78
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 2–0 13.1%
Ravenna vs Forli prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Ravenna 67% · draw 22% · Forli 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Ravenna v Forli: who are you backing?
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- Takes
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- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
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How the numbers for Ravenna v Forli are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravenna (home) | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.11 | 2.08 |
| Forli (away) | 1.19 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 1.34 × 1.11 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.80 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.62 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.89 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.78 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.06, λaway = 0.73
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.1%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 13.1%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ravenna | 68.1% | 68.0% | 65.5% | 67.0% |
| X Draw | 20.3% | 24.0% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| 2 Forli | 11.6% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 11.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.106 → 10.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ravenna | 67.0% | 1.49 | 1.38 | 72.5% | -7.5% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.61 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -8.9% | |
| 2 · Forli | 11.3% | 8.83 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -20.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -6.0% | |
| X2 | 33.0% | 3.03 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -5.0% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -12.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ravenna | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Forli | 14.5% | 6.92 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.5% | |
| Under 1.5 | 23.4% | 4.28 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -6.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -3.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.12 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -11.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 51.8% | 1.93 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 48.2% | 2.07 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -16.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 48.8% | 2.05 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.5% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.6% | 7.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.518 × 2.00 − 1 = +0.036 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.036 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ravenna | Forli |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWLW | WLDLDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Ravenna 67% to win. Standings: Ravenna 2nd on 29, Forli 15th on 15.
Form
Sequence for Ravenna: W W D W L W, so four victories in six. Latest: 3–1 away at Vado. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Forli, last six: W L D L D L – one win in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Gubbio. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.7 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Ravenna 2–1 Forli. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ravenna 2.06 · Forli 0.73 · total 2.78. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.00 v fair 1.93. Most probable score: Ravenna 2–1 Forli. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 1 Sep 2026Ravenna2–1Forli
Serie C Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 14 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Livorno | 14 | +1 | 21 |
| 8 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 14 | -6 | 19 |
| 10 |  Latina | 14 | +2 | 18 |
| 11 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 14 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 14 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 |  Gubbio | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 19 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 14 | -14 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ravenna vs Forli?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.00 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ravenna v Forli probabilities?
Ravenna win 67%, draw 22%, Forli win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Ravenna vs Forli?
Ravenna 2–1 Forli is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ravenna vs Forli?
Ravenna 2.06, Forli 0.73 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Ravenna vs Forli?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 17:30 WAT, at Stadio Comunale Bruno Benelli – Serie C Girone B.