- λ home
- 1.57
- λ away
- 0.84
- Σλ total
- 2.41
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.0%
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Ostia Mare prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 56% · draw 25% · Ostia Mare 19%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Ostia Mare: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Ostia Mare are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 13 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (home) | 1.39 | 0.95 | 1.10 | 1.45 |
| Ostia Mare (away) | 1.19 | 0.72 | 0.97 | 0.83 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.39 × 0.95 × 1.10 ≈ 1.45
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.28 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.28 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.41 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.57, λaway = 0.84
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 20.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 50.7% | 73.0% | 51.1% | 56.0% |
| X Draw | 28.3% | 16.0% | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| 2 Ostia Mare | 21.0% | 11.0% | 21.8% | 19.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.118 → 11.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 56.0% | 1.78 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -1.9% | |
| X · Draw | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -17.7% | |
| 2 · Ostia Mare | 19.0% | 5.25 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -22.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.0% | 1.24 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -5.3% | |
| X2 | 44.0% | 2.27 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -16.0% | |
| 12 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 74.7% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ostia Mare | 25.3% | 3.94 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.2% | 1.38 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -9.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +4.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -12.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +2.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.8% | 3.73 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -19.6% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 73.2% | 1.37 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -0.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -0.6% | |
| BTTS no | 44.8% | 2.23 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -14.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.4% | 2.60 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.1% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.5% | 5.70 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.732 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | Ostia Mare |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWDW | LLLLDD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 0-2-4 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ahead at 56%, against 19% for Ostia Mare and 25% for the draw. Standings: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 7th on 20, Ostia Mare 18th on 9.
Form
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 have three wins from their last six (W D L W D W). Latest: 2–1 away at Sambenedettese. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Ostia Mare: L L L L D D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–4 at home to Spezia. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.57 · Ostia Mare 0.84 · total 2.41. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1–0 Ostia Mare. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie C Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spezia | 13 | +19 | 35 |
| 2 |  Ravenna | 13 | +17 | 29 |
| 3 |  Grosseto | 13 | +8 | 23 |
| 4 |  Pescara | 13 | +4 | 22 |
| 5 |  Torres | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 6 |  Reggiana | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
| 8 |  Livorno | 13 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 |  Campobasso FC | 13 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Atalanta II | 13 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 |  Pineto | 13 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 |  Perugia | 13 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Vado | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 |  Forli | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 |  Latina | 13 | -2 | 15 |
| 16 |  Pianese | 13 | -3 | 13 |
| 17 |  Sambenedettese | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Ostia Mare | 13 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 |  Gubbio | 13 | -12 | 8 |
| 20 |  Vis Pesaro | 13 | -16 | 5 |
More Serie C Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Ostia Mare?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Ostia Mare probabilities?
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win 56%, draw 25%, Ostia Mare win 19%.
What is the most probable score for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Ostia Mare?
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1–0 Ostia Mare is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Ostia Mare?
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.57, Ostia Mare 0.84 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Ostia Mare?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 14:30 WAT, at Stadio Citta dell Aria – Serie C Girone B.