- λ home
- 1.48
- λ away
- 0.96
- Σλ total
- 2.45
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.9%
Vitez vs Radnik Hadžići prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vitez 51% · draw 26% · Radnik Hadžići 23%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vitez v Radnik Hadžići: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Vitez v Radnik Hadžići are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (18 and 18 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitez (home) | 1.65 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 1.42 |
| Radnik Hadžići (away) | 1.09 | 0.88 | 1.02 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.65 × 0.86 × 0.99 ≈ 1.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.39 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.28 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.67 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.45 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.48, λaway = 0.96
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 49.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 24.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vitez | 46.4% | 63.0% | 48.6% | 51.2% |
| X Draw | 28.3% | 21.0% | 25.7% | 25.5% |
| 2 Radnik Hadžići | 25.3% | 16.0% | 25.7% | 23.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vitez | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -5.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -10.7% | |
| 2 · Radnik Hadžići | 23.3% | 4.29 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -18.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 76.7% | 1.30 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -6.4% | |
| X2 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | 74.5% | 1.34 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -9.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vitez | 68.7% | 1.46 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Radnik Hadžići | 31.3% | 3.20 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 70.2% | 1.43 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 29.8% | 3.35 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -10.5% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.90 | 52.6% | +0.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -6.3% | |
| BTTS no | 48.2% | 2.07 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -3.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 35.5% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.4% | 4.91 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.529 × 1.90 − 1 = +0.005 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.005 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vitez | Radnik Hadžići |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLWWL | DWWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% |
| BTTS | 100% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Vitez ahead at 51%, against 23% for Radnik Hadžići and 26% for the draw. Standings: Vitez 9th on 16, Radnik Hadžići 12th on 14.
Form
Vitez, last six: D W L W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Zvijezda Gradačac. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Radnik Hadžići have three wins from their last six (D W W L L W). Latest: 1–1 at home to Rudar Kakanj. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vitez 1.48 · Radnik Hadžići 0.96 · total 2.45. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 52%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.90 v fair 1.89. Most probable score: Vitez 1–0 Radnik Hadžići. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
1st League FBiH table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sloboda Tuzla | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 2 |  Posušje | 13 | +8 | 27 |
| 3 |  Travnik | 13 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stupčanica Olovo | 13 | +15 | 23 |
| 5 |  GOŠK Gabela | 13 | +9 | 23 |
| 6 |  Igman Konjic | 13 | +3 | 22 |
| 7 |  TOŠK Tešanj | 13 | +4 | 20 |
| 8 |  Jedinstvo Bihać | 13 | +3 | 19 |
| 9 |  Vitez | 13 | -4 | 16 |
| 10 |  Zvijezda Gradačac | 13 | +7 | 15 |
| 11 |  Bratstvo Gračanica | 13 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 |  Radnik Hadžići | 13 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budućnost Banovići | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 14 |  Tomislav | 13 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rudar Kakanj | 13 | -18 | 9 |
| 16 |  Čapljina | 13 | -17 | 8 |
More 1st League FBiH predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vitez vs Radnik Hadžići?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.90 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vitez v Radnik Hadžići probabilities?
Vitez win 51%, draw 26%, Radnik Hadžići win 23%.
What is the most probable score for Vitez vs Radnik Hadžići?
Vitez 1–0 Radnik Hadžići is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vitez vs Radnik Hadžići?
Vitez 1.48, Radnik Hadžići 0.96 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Vitez vs Radnik Hadžići?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 13:30 WAT – 1st League FBiH.