Europe UEFA Nations League Sun 15 Nov 2026 · Bolt Arena Upcoming

Finland

WDWLL

18:00

Sunday · WAT

San Marino

LLLLL

81%P(1)12%P(X)7%P(2)

λ home: 2.93
λ away: 0.74
Σλ total: 3.67
P(over 2.5): 73%
P(BTTS): 47%
Modal score: 2–0 11.0%

Finland vs San Marino prediction & xG model: Over 3.5 goals

The Arena debate

Finland v San Marino: who are you backing?

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Takes: 0
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Your call Counts on the weekly table · change it until kick-off

Arena tipOver 3.5 goals54% chance · @1.68

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Model sheet

How the numbers for Finland v San Marino are calculated

Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.

Expected goals (λ)

Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.

	League avg goals	Attack	Opp. defence	λ (ratings)
Finland (home)	1.28	1.24	1.82	2.89
San Marino (away)	1.25	0.67	0.85	0.71

λ_home = μ_home × Att_home × Def_away = 1.28 × 1.24 × 1.82 ≈ 2.89

Total-goals source	Estimate	Weight
Team ratings	3.60	45%
Statistical xG feed	3.50	25%
Over/under 2.5 price	3.90	30%
Blended total λ	3.67	100%

Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λ_home = 2.93, λ_away = 0.74

Poisson goal distributions

P(k goals) = e^−λ · λ^k ÷ k!

Finland λ = 2.93

05.3%

115.7%

222.9%

322.4%

416.4%

5+17.3%

San Marino λ = 0.74

047.9%

135.3%

213.0%

33.2%

40.6%

5+0.1%

Score grid

Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.

Fin \ San012345+

02.61.90.7···

17.55.52.0···

2118.13.00.7··

3117.92.90.7··

47.95.82.10.5··

5+8.36.12.20.6··

Σ home-win cells: 81.6%
Σ draw cells: 11.9%
Σ away-win cells: 6.5%
Most probable score: 2–0 · 11.0%

Blending with the market

Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.

Outcome	Ratings	Feed	Market*	Final
1 Finland	81.0%	63.0%	91.4%	81.2%
X Draw	12.7%	22.0%	6.7%	12.3%
2 San Marino	6.4%	15.0%	1.9%	6.5%

Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.032 → 3.2% removed before blending (*market column).

Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV

Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied

Selection	p	Fair	Best odds	Implied	EV
1X2
1 · Finland	81.2%	1.23	1.06	94.3%	-14.0%
X · Draw	12.3%	8.12	14.50	6.9%	+78.6%
2 · San Marino	6.5%	15.37	50.00	2.0%	+225.3%
Double chance
1X	93.5%	1.07	–	–	–
X2	18.8%	5.31	10.50	9.5%	+97.6%
12	87.7%	1.14	1.03	97.1%	-9.7%
Draw no bet
DNB Finland	92.6%	1.08	–	–	–
DNB San Marino	7.4%	13.48	–	–	–
Goal lines
Over 1.5	88.8%	1.13	1.03	97.1%	-8.5%
Under 1.5	11.2%	8.92	8.80	11.4%	-1.4%
Over 2.5	72.8%	1.37	1.26	79.4%	-8.3%
Under 2.5	27.2%	3.67	3.72	26.9%	+1.3%
Over 3.5 pick	53.8%	1.86	1.68	59.5%	-9.6%
Under 3.5	46.2%	2.17	2.30	43.5%	+6.2%
Both teams to score
BTTS yes	47.4%	2.11	3.92	25.5%	+85.6%
BTTS no	52.6%	1.90	1.22	82.0%	-35.8%
Half-time
HT 1	61.5%	1.63	–	–	–
HT X	29.2%	3.42	–	–	–
HT 2	9.3%	10.80	–	–	–

The selection

Model pickOver 3.5 goals

Probability53.8%

Fair odds1.86

Best odds1.68

EV per unit-9.6%

EV = 0.538 × 1.68 − 1 = -0.096 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)

A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.

Recent form, in numbers

last 6 matches · 90-minute scores

Metric	Finland	San Marino
Sequence	LLWDWL	LLLLLL
Matches	6	6
W-D-L	2-1-3	0-0-6
Points per match	1.17	0.00
Goals for / match	1.67	0.33
Goals against / match	1.00	3.33
Over 2.5	50%	83%
BTTS	33%	33%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	50%	67%

What the numbers say

by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst

1X2 probabilities

Finland at 81%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Finland 3rd on 7, San Marino 4th on 0.

Form

Sequence for Finland: L L W D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Albania. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.

Sequence for San Marino: L L L L L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Belarus. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.

Head to head

Last meeting (Sep 2026): San Marino 0–7 Finland. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.

Expected goals (xG)

xG Finland 2.93 · San Marino 0.74 · total 3.67. High total: over 2.5 73%, BTTS 47%.

Model selection

Model selection: Over 3.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.68 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Finland 3–1 San Marino. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.