- λ home
- 0.93
- λ away
- 1.36
- Σλ total
- 2.29
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.8%
Belarus vs Albania prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Belarus 28% · draw 22% · Albania 49%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Belarus v Albania: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Belarus v Albania are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.25 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.32 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.29 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.93, λaway = 1.36
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 25.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 46.8%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.8%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Belarus | – | 32.0% | 22.9% | 28.2% |
| X Draw | – | 18.0% | 28.7% | 22.5% |
| 2 Albania | – | 50.0% | 48.5% | 49.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.032 → 3.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Belarus | 28.2% | 3.55 | 4.24 | 23.6% | +19.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.5% | 4.45 | 3.38 | 29.6% | -24.0% | |
| 2 · Albania | 49.4% | 2.03 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -1.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 50.6% | 1.97 | 1.86 | 53.8% | -5.8% | |
| X2 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -10.2% | |
| 12 | 77.5% | 1.29 | 1.35 | 74.1% | +4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Belarus | 36.3% | 2.75 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Albania | 63.7% | 1.57 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | 1.42 | 70.4% | -5.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 33.7% | 2.97 | 2.77 | 36.1% | -6.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.4% | 2.48 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -3.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -2.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 4.79 | 4.30 | 23.3% | -10.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.21 | 82.6% | -4.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | 2.02 | 49.5% | +9.7% | |
| BTTS no | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.72 | 58.1% | -21.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.6% | 4.85 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.1% | 2.17 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.3% | 3.00 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.791 × 1.21 − 1 = -0.042 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Belarus | Albania |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDLD | WWLWWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Albania narrowly ahead at 49%; Belarus 28%. Standings: Belarus 2nd on 10, Albania 1st on 12.
Form
Sequence for Belarus: W W W D L D, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–0 away at San Marino. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Albania, last six: W W L W W L – four wins in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Finland. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Albania 2–0 Belarus. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Belarus 0.93 · Albania 1.36 · total 2.29. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 79%, odds 1.21 v fair 1.26. Most probable score: Belarus 0–1 Albania. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 26 Sep 2026Albania2–0Belarus
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Albania | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 |  Belarus | 5 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Finland | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 |  San Marino | 5 | -17 | 0 |
More UEFA Nations League predictions
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Czech RepublicFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Belarus vs Albania?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 79, priced around 1.21 by the bookmakers.
What are the Belarus v Albania probabilities?
Belarus win 28%, draw 22%, Albania win 49%.
What is the most probable score for Belarus vs Albania?
Belarus 0–1 Albania is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Belarus vs Albania?
Belarus 0.93, Albania 1.36 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Belarus vs Albania?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 18:00 WAT, at Illovszky Rudolf Stadion – UEFA Nations League.