- λ home
- 0.96
- λ away
- 1.26
- Σλ total
- 2.22
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 55%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.7%
Latvia vs Armenia prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Latvia 28% · draw 28% · Armenia 45%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Latvia v Armenia: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Latvia v Armenia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (7 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia (home) | 1.28 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 0.97 |
| Armenia (away) | 1.25 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 1.24 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.28 × 0.79 × 0.96 ≈ 0.97
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.21 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.13 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.32 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.22 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.96, λaway = 1.26
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 28.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.2%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Latvia | 28.4% | 28.0% | 27.5% | 27.9% |
| X Draw | 30.2% | 18.0% | 30.6% | 27.6% |
| 2 Armenia | 41.4% | 54.0% | 41.8% | 44.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.053 → 5.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Latvia | 27.9% | 3.58 | 3.45 | 29.0% | -3.7% | |
| X · Draw | 27.6% | 3.63 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -14.5% | |
| 2 · Armenia | 44.5% | 2.25 | 2.27 | 44.1% | +1.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 55.5% | 1.80 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -7.3% | |
| X2 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -3.4% | |
| 12 | 72.4% | 1.38 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -1.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Latvia | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Armenia | 61.4% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.4% | |
| Under 1.5 | 35.0% | 2.86 | 2.67 | 37.5% | -6.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39.7% | 2.52 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -8.7% | |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -3.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.9% | 4.77 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -16.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -3.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.93 | 51.8% | +6.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.9% | 2.23 | 1.78 | 56.2% | -20.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.0% | 4.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.0% | 2.13 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 31.0% | 3.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.551 × 1.93 − 1 = +0.063 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.068 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Latvia | Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLDLL | DDLLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 45% against 28%. Standings: Latvia 4th on 1, Armenia 3rd on 5.
Form
Latvia, last six: L L L D L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Montenegro. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Armenia, last six: D D L L W D – one win in total. Latest: 1–1 at home to Cyprus. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Armenia 2–0 Latvia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Latvia 0.96 · Armenia 1.26 · total 2.22. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 55%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 55%, odds 1.93 v fair 1.82. Most probable score: Latvia 1–2 Armenia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Sep 2026Armenia2–0Latvia
UEFA Nations League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Montenegro | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Cyprus | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Armenia | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Latvia | 5 | -5 | 1 |
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Czech RepublicFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Latvia vs Armenia?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 55, priced around 1.93 by the bookmakers.
What are the Latvia v Armenia probabilities?
Latvia win 28%, draw 28%, Armenia win 45%.
What is the most probable score for Latvia vs Armenia?
Latvia 1–2 Armenia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Latvia vs Armenia?
Latvia 0.96, Armenia 1.26 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 55%.
What time is Latvia vs Armenia?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 15:00 WAT, at Skonto – UEFA Nations League.