- λ home
- 1.74
- λ away
- 1.00
- Σλ total
- 2.74
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets prediction & xG model: Ska-khabarovsk to win
Ska-khabarovsk v Leningradets: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Ska-khabarovsk v Leningradets are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 17 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ska-khabarovsk (home) | 1.47 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 1.72 |
| Leningradets (away) | 1.16 | 0.82 | 1.15 | 1.10 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.47 × 1.05 × 1.11 ≈ 1.72
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.82 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.76 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.60 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.74 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.74, λaway = 1.00
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 54.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 21.6%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ska-khabarovsk | 51.0% | 70.0% | 55.4% | 57.3% |
| X Draw | 25.0% | 23.0% | 25.0% | 24.5% |
| 2 Leningradets | 24.0% | 7.0% | 19.6% | 18.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ska-khabarovsk pick | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.66 | 60.2% | -5.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.07 | 3.68 | 27.2% | -9.7% | |
| 2 · Leningradets | 18.2% | 5.49 | 4.70 | 21.3% | -14.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -5.9% | |
| X2 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.07 | 48.3% | -11.5% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.33 | 1.23 | 81.3% | -7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ska-khabarovsk | 75.9% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Leningradets | 24.1% | 4.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -6.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 3.78 | 3.14 | 31.8% | -16.9% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -3.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -9.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 28.5% | 3.50 | 3.28 | 30.5% | -6.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -10.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | 1.87 | 53.5% | -3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.81 | 55.2% | -12.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 39.8% | 2.51 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.9% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.3% | 5.18 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.573 × 1.66 − 1 = -0.050 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ska-khabarovsk | Leningradets |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDWWLW | DDWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ska-khabarovsk ahead at 57%, against 18% for Leningradets and 25% for the draw. Standings: Ska-khabarovsk 15th on 16, Leningradets 13th on 18.
Form
Ska-khabarovsk have four wins from their last six (W D W W L W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Tekstilshchik. Scoring rate: 2.0 per match – well above average. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Leningradets, last six: D D W D L W – two wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Rotor Volgograd. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 2: Ska-khabarovsk 0, Leningradets 1, drawn 1, 3.5 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Leningradets 1–1 Ska-khabarovsk. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ska-khabarovsk 1.74 · Leningradets 1.00 · total 2.74. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Ska-khabarovsk to win, probability 57%, odds 1.66 v fair 1.75. Most probable score: Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Leningradets. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 4 Nov 2026Leningradets1–1Ska-khabarovsk
- 5 Sep 2026Leningradets3–2Ska-khabarovsk
First League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | +37 | 46 |
| 2 |  Torpedo Moskva | 18 | +17 | 35 |
| 3 |  Ural | 17 | +18 | 34 |
| 4 |  FC Sochi | 17 | +6 | 32 |
| 5 |  Veles | 18 | +2 | 31 |
| 6 |  Spartak Kostroma | 17 | +2 | 28 |
| 7 |  Shinnik Yaroslavl | 17 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  FC UFA | 17 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Volga Ulyanovsk | 19 | -4 | 22 |
| 10 |  Rotor Volgograd | 17 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |  Chelyabinsk | 17 | -4 | 21 |
| 12 |  Arsenal Tula | 17 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 |  Leningradets | 17 | -11 | 18 |
| 14 |  Enisey | 17 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 |  Ska-khabarovsk | 17 | -5 | 16 |
| 16 |  KAMAZ | 17 | -9 | 14 |
| 17 |  FK Neftekhimik | 17 | -14 | 13 |
| 18 |  Tekstilshchik | 17 | -17 | 11 |
More First League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
The Model pick is Ska-khabarovsk to win with a model probability of 57, priced around 1.66 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ska-khabarovsk v Leningradets probabilities?
Ska-khabarovsk win 57%, draw 25%, Leningradets win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Leningradets is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
Ska-khabarovsk 1.74, Leningradets 1.00 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Ska-khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 06:00 WAT, at Petrovsky Stadium – First League.