- λ home
- 2.59
- λ away
- 1.03
- Σλ total
- 3.62
- P(over 2.5)
- 69%
- P(BTTS)
- 61%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.3%
Tigres UANL W vs Pumas UNAM W prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Tigres UANL W v Pumas UNAM W: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–5
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 2.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Tigres UANL W v Pumas UNAM W are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL W (home) | 1.87 | 1.67 | 1.04 | 3.22 |
| Pumas UNAM W (away) | 1.61 | 0.94 | 0.63 | 0.95 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.87 × 1.67 × 1.04 ≈ 3.22
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.17 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.82 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.45 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.62 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.59, λaway = 1.03
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 70.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.9%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Tigres UANL W | 80.7% | 72.0% | 65.1% | 69.1% |
| X Draw | 11.9% | 20.0% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| 2 Pumas UNAM W | 7.4% | 8.0% | 15.8% | 11.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Tigres UANL W | 69.1% | 1.45 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 19.7% | 5.09 | 4.65 | 21.5% | -8.6% | |
| 2 · Pumas UNAM W | 11.3% | 8.88 | 5.65 | 17.7% | -36.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.7% | 1.13 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -5.9% | |
| X2 | 30.9% | 3.23 | 2.56 | 39.1% | -20.9% | |
| 12 | 80.3% | 1.24 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -11.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Tigres UANL W | 86.0% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pumas UNAM W | 14.0% | 7.13 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -8.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.0% | 7.15 | 5.80 | 17.2% | -18.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.35 | 74.1% | -7.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | 3.18 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -13.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -6.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -9.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.51 | 66.2% | -7.5% | |
| BTTS no | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.29 | 43.7% | -11.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.9% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 14.8% | 6.77 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.685 × 1.35 − 1 = -0.075 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Tigres UANL W | Pumas UNAM W |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWW | LWLDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-1-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 2.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 3.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Tigres UANL W at 69%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Tigres UANL W 3rd on 35, Pumas UNAM W 9th on 20.
Form
Tigres UANL W have five wins from their last six (W W W D W W). Latest: 3–2 away at Pumas UNAM W. 3.5 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Pumas UNAM W: L W L D W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–3 at home to Tigres UANL W. Per match: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
Previous 3: Tigres UANL W 3, Pumas UNAM W 0, drawn 0, 3.7 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Nov 2026): Pumas UNAM W 2–3 Tigres UANL W. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Tigres UANL W 2.59 · Pumas UNAM W 1.03 · total 3.62. High total: over 2.5 69%, BTTS 61%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.35 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Tigres UANL W 2–1 Pumas UNAM W. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 11 Nov 2026Pumas UNAM W2–3Tigres UANL W
- 3 Oct 2026Pumas UNAM W1–3Tigres UANL W
- 21 Feb 2026Pumas UNAM W0–2Tigres UANL W
Liga MX Femenil table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  América W | 14 | +50 | 37 |
| 2 |  Monterrey W | 14 | +34 | 37 |
| 3 |  Tigres UANL W | 14 | +35 | 35 |
| 4 |  Guadalajara W | 14 | +17 | 30 |
| 5 |  Juárez W | 14 | +9 | 30 |
| 6 |  Toluca W | 14 | +9 | 27 |
| 7 |  León W | 14 | +3 | 25 |
| 8 |  Santos Laguna W | 14 | -4 | 22 |
| 9 |  Pumas UNAM W | 14 | -2 | 20 |
| 10 |  Pachuca W | 14 | +9 | 19 |
| 11 |  Atlético San Luis W | 14 | -4 | 19 |
| 12 |  Cruz Azul W | 14 | -9 | 18 |
| 13 |  Atlas W | 14 | -14 | 17 |
| 14 |  Tijuana W | 14 | -15 | 11 |
| 15 |  Querétaro W | 14 | -20 | 7 |
| 16 |  Atlante W | 14 | -20 | 7 |
| 17 |  Puebla W | 14 | -29 | 4 |
| 18 |  Necaxa W | 14 | -49 | 1 |
More Liga MX Femenil predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Tigres UANL W vs Pumas UNAM W?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.35 by the bookmakers.
What are the Tigres UANL W v Pumas UNAM W probabilities?
Tigres UANL W win 69%, draw 20%, Pumas UNAM W win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Tigres UANL W vs Pumas UNAM W?
Tigres UANL W 2–1 Pumas UNAM W is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Tigres UANL W vs Pumas UNAM W?
Tigres UANL W 2.59, Pumas UNAM W 1.03 – over 2.5 at 69%, BTTS at 61%.
What time is Tigres UANL W vs Pumas UNAM W?
Sunday 15 November 2026, 00:00 WAT, at Estadio Universitario – Liga MX Femenil.