Football predictions for Thursday 19 November

Today's football tips for Thursday 19 November: how to read the board

Today's board covers every match we have priced for Thursday 19 November, from the early kick-offs in Asia to the late games in South America. The chances update through the day as team news and prices move, then lock at kick-off, so every tip is settled on the numbers you saw before the game. Here is how to get the most out of the page in a few minutes.

The two goal figures come first

Before you look at the tip, look at the two small numbers beside the teams. They are the goals we expect each side to score, and every percentage on the row comes from them. A 2.3 against 0.6 match is lopsided; a 1.2 against 1.1 match is close and probably low-scoring. Those two figures will often tell you more about a game than the tip itself – including which market suits it best.

The three shaded cells

The shaded cells are the chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. The darkest is the favourite. Notice how often even the favourite sits below 55%: football is a low-scoring game, and draws turn up in roughly a quarter of matches. A tip that ignores the draw is ignoring one result in four.

The tip box and the price

The tip box shows our selection, its chance, its fair odds (1 divided by the chance) and the best price we found. If the price is higher than the fair odds, the bet pays more than its risk – that is value. If it is lower, the tip may still win, but it is not paying enough for the risk you take. That single comparison is the habit that separates winning punters from everyone else.

Narrow it down before you bet

• Use the league filter to stay in competitions you actually follow.
• Ignore tips priced under about 1.20 unless they are part of a careful plan – the reward is tiny and one loss wipes out several wins.
• Check the value bets list for today's prices that beat our fair odds.
• Open any match for its full score grid, form and head-to-head record.

After the final whistle

As each match ends, its tip is marked won or lost on the 90-minute score and moved into yesterday's results and the prediction archive. Nothing is removed, so you can always check how a league or a market has been treating us before you follow the next tip.

Bet small, bet steady

Even a day full of strong tips will include losers. Decide your budget for Thursday 19 November before the first kick-off, keep each stake to a small, fixed share of it and never raise stakes to recover a loss. If you want to test your own reading without money, call today's big games in the community game instead. 18+.

Worked example: one row, read in full

Imagine a row showing a home side expected to score 1.7 goals and the visitors 0.9. The cells read 55% home, 25% draw, 20% away. Our tip is the home win with fair odds of 1.82, and the best price is 1.95. Expected value is 0.55 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.07, a 7% edge – worth a flat stake. Now imagine the same row with a best price of 1.70: expected value 0.55 × 1.70 − 1 = −0.065. Same team, same chance, but no longer a bet. That one line of arithmetic is the difference between following tips and betting with a plan.

Before you place a bet today

• Is the price above the fair odds?
• Have you checked the line-ups for the match?
• Is the stake the same size as your usual stake?
• Is this a league you know, or one you found five minutes ago?

If any answer is no, it can wait – there will be another match in an hour.