- λ home
- 1.55
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 48%
- P(BTTS)
- 57%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.7%
Corinthians vs Botafogo prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Corinthians 53% · draw 26% · Botafogo 20%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Corinthians v Botafogo: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Corinthians v Botafogo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (29 and 24 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians (home) | 1.52 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| Botafogo (away) | 1.14 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 0.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.85 × 1.07 ≈ 1.37
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.29 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.73 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.55, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 51.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Corinthians | 46.4% | 68.0% | 50.8% | 53.3% |
| X Draw | 29.0% | 22.0% | 26.6% | 26.3% |
| 2 Botafogo | 24.6% | 10.0% | 22.7% | 20.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Corinthians | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -2.5% | |
| X · Draw | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -7.8% | |
| 2 · Botafogo | 20.4% | 4.90 | 4.10 | 24.4% | -16.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 79.6% | 1.26 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.9% | |
| X2 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -10.7% | |
| 12 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Corinthians | 72.3% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Botafogo | 27.7% | 3.61 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -6.7% | |
| Under 1.5 | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3.75 | 26.7% | +1.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 2.06 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -10.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +0.5% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -13.5% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 73.0% | 1.37 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -0.8% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +2.8% | |
| BTTS no | 42.9% | 2.33 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -16.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.8% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 19.7% | 5.08 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.730 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.008 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Corinthians | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDLL | WLLWDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Corinthians ahead at 53%, against 20% for Botafogo and 26% for the draw. Standings: Corinthians 17th on 37, Botafogo 11th on 42.
Form
Corinthians, last six: D W L D L L – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Sao Paulo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Botafogo, last six: W L L W D L – two wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Atletico-MG. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Botafogo 3–1 Corinthians. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Corinthians 1.55 · Botafogo 0.95 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 48%, BTTS 57%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 73%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.37. Most probable score: Corinthians 1–0 Botafogo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Botafogo3–1Corinthians
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Corinthians vs Botafogo?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 73, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Corinthians v Botafogo probabilities?
Corinthians win 53%, draw 26%, Botafogo win 20%.
What is the most probable score for Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Corinthians 1–0 Botafogo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Corinthians 1.55, Botafogo 0.95 – over 2.5 at 48%, BTTS at 57%.
What time is Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 01:30 WAT, at Neo Quimica Arena – Serie A.