- λ home
- 2.43
- λ away
- 0.86
- Σλ total
- 3.29
- P(over 2.5)
- 64%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.0%
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Flamengo 72% · draw 17% · Atletico Paranaense 11%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (27 and 27 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo (home) | 1.52 | 1.52 | 1.13 | 2.62 |
| Atletico Paranaense (away) | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 1.52 × 1.13 ≈ 2.62
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.54 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.85 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.29 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.43, λaway = 0.86
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 72.0%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Flamengo | 72.9% | 65.0% | 75.0% | 72.0% |
| X Draw | 16.2% | 17.0% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| 2 Atletico Paranaense | 10.9% | 18.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.092 → 9.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Flamengo | 72.0% | 1.39 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -12.2% | |
| X · Draw | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -8.8% | |
| 2 · Atletico Paranaense | 11.5% | 8.73 | 11.00 | 9.1% | +26.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.5% | 1.13 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -7.0% | |
| X2 | 28.0% | 3.57 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +12.2% | |
| 12 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.9% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Flamengo | 86.3% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Atletico Paranaense | 13.7% | 7.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 83.4% | 1.20 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -4.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 16.6% | 6.03 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -8.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 1.57 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -5.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 36.2% | 2.76 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -5.9% | |
| Over 3.5 | 42.5% | 2.36 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -6.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 54.2% | 1.84 | 1.95 | 51.3% | +5.7% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -17.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 52.9% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.1% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.0% | 7.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.542 × 1.95 − 1 = +0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.060 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWD | LLDLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Flamengo at 72%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Flamengo 1st on 76, Atletico Paranaense 5th on 54.
Form
Flamengo, last six: W W W D W D – four wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Gremio. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Atletico Paranaense have one win from their last six (L L D L W D). Latest: 1–3 at home to Vasco DA Gama. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Flamengo 2.43 · Atletico Paranaense 0.86 · total 3.29. High total: over 2.5 64%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection
Model selection: Both teams to score, probability 54%, odds 1.95 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Flamengo 2–1 Atletico Paranaense. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Atletico Paranaense1–1Flamengo
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.95 by the bookmakers.
What are the Flamengo v Atletico Paranaense probabilities?
Flamengo win 72%, draw 17%, Atletico Paranaense win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo 2–1 Atletico Paranaense is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Flamengo 2.43, Atletico Paranaense 0.86 – over 2.5 at 64%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estádio do Maracanã – Serie A.