- λ home
- 1.26
- λ away
- 1.56
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 54%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.7%
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cruzeiro 33% · draw 21% · Palmeiras 46%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cruzeiro v Palmeiras: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cruzeiro v Palmeiras are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.76 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.87 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.26, λaway = 1.56
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 44.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.7%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cruzeiro | – | 33.0% | 32.3% | 32.7% |
| X Draw | – | 17.0% | 27.3% | 21.3% |
| 2 Palmeiras | – | 50.0% | 40.4% | 46.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.076 → 7.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cruzeiro | 32.7% | 3.06 | 2.88 | 34.7% | -5.8% | |
| X · Draw | 21.3% | 4.69 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -27.4% | |
| 2 · Palmeiras | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.30 | 43.5% | +5.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -15.2% | |
| X2 | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -5.8% | |
| 12 | 78.7% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cruzeiro | 41.6% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Palmeiras | 58.4% | 1.71 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 77.6% | 1.29 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -5.3% | |
| Under 1.5 | 22.4% | 4.46 | 4.33 | 23.1% | -3.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -6.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | 2.18 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -4.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -9.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -3.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -2.2% | |
| BTTS no | 39.6% | 2.52 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -12.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 25.4% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 41.0% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.5% | 2.98 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.776 × 1.22 − 1 = -0.053 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cruzeiro | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWWLW | LWWDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 5-0-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.17 | 1.67 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 50% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Palmeiras narrowly ahead at 46%; Cruzeiro 33%. Standings: Cruzeiro 3rd on 60, Palmeiras 2nd on 73.
Form
Cruzeiro have five wins from their last six (W W W W L W). Latest: 3–2 at home to Bahia. 2.2 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Palmeiras, last six: L W W D W L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–2 away at Vasco DA Gama. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): Palmeiras 1–1 Cruzeiro. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cruzeiro 1.26 · Palmeiras 1.56 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 54%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 78%, odds 1.22 v fair 1.29. Most probable score: Cruzeiro 1–2 Palmeiras. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026Palmeiras1–1Cruzeiro
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 78, priced around 1.22 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cruzeiro v Palmeiras probabilities?
Cruzeiro win 33%, draw 21%, Palmeiras win 46%.
What is the most probable score for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro 1–2 Palmeiras is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Cruzeiro 1.26, Palmeiras 1.56 – over 2.5 at 54%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estádio Mineirão – Serie A.