- λ home
- 1.05
- λ away
- 1.42
- Σλ total
- 2.47
- P(over 2.5)
- 49%
- P(BTTS)
- 56%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.6%
Vitoria vs RB Bragantino prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Vitoria 31% · draw 26% · RB Bragantino 44%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Vitoria v RB Bragantino: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Vitoria v RB Bragantino are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria (home) | 1.52 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| RB Bragantino (away) | 1.14 | 1.02 | 1.16 | 1.34 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.52 × 0.68 × 0.88 ≈ 0.92
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.26 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.49 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.78 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.47 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.05, λaway = 1.42
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 27.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 45.5%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Vitoria | 25.0% | 32.0% | 34.5% | 30.6% |
| X Draw | 29.3% | 17.0% | 27.4% | 25.7% |
| 2 RB Bragantino | 45.6% | 51.0% | 38.1% | 43.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.073 → 7.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Vitoria | 30.6% | 3.26 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -17.3% | |
| X · Draw | 25.7% | 3.90 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -12.7% | |
| 2 · RB Bragantino | 43.7% | 2.29 | 2.45 | 40.8% | +7.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 56.3% | 1.78 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -13.9% | |
| X2 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -0.1% | |
| 12 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Vitoria | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| DNB RB Bragantino | 58.8% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -8.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 26.5% | 3.77 | 4.00 | 25.0% | +6.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48.8% | 2.05 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -12.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | 2.00 | 50.0% | +2.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.7% | 3.60 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -16.8% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 72.3% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 71.4% | +1.2% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -9.3% | |
| BTTS no | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -3.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.6% | 4.43 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.2% | 2.26 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 33.2% | 3.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.723 × 1.40 − 1 = +0.012 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.029 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Vitoria | RB Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLDDLW | WWLDWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-2-3 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.83 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 44% against 31%. Standings: Vitoria 15th on 38, RB Bragantino 8th on 47.
Form
Vitoria have one win from their last six (L L D D L W). Latest: 0–3 at home to Fluminense. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded.
RB Bragantino, last six: W W L D W D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–1 at home to Santos. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (May 2026): RB Bragantino 2–0 Vitoria. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Vitoria 1.05 · RB Bragantino 1.42 · total 2.47. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 49%, BTTS 56%.
Model selection
Highest-rated market: Under 3.5 goals, probability 72%, odds 1.40 v fair 1.38. Most probable score: Vitoria 0–1 RB Bragantino. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 17 May 2026RB Bragantino2–0Vitoria
Serie A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Vitoria vs RB Bragantino?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 72, priced around 1.40 by the bookmakers.
What are the Vitoria v RB Bragantino probabilities?
Vitoria win 31%, draw 26%, RB Bragantino win 44%.
What is the most probable score for Vitoria vs RB Bragantino?
Vitoria 0–1 RB Bragantino is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Vitoria vs RB Bragantino?
Vitoria 1.05, RB Bragantino 1.42 – over 2.5 at 49%, BTTS at 56%.
What time is Vitoria vs RB Bragantino?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 23:30 WAT, at Barradao – Serie A.