- λ home
- 1.56
- λ away
- 1.44
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 62%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 1–1 11.2%
IFK Norrkoping vs KuPS prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: IFK Norrkoping 43% · draw 19% · KuPS 38%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
IFK Norrkoping v KuPS: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for IFK Norrkoping v KuPS are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.54 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.39 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.56, λaway = 1.44
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 40.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 35.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 11.2%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 IFK Norrkoping | – | 48.0% | 36.6% | 43.2% |
| X Draw | – | 16.0% | 22.8% | 18.8% |
| 2 KuPS | – | 36.0% | 40.6% | 37.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.124 → 12.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · IFK Norrkoping | 43.2% | 2.31 | 2.43 | 41.2% | +5.0% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.31 | 3.91 | 25.6% | -26.3% | |
| 2 · KuPS | 37.9% | 2.64 | 2.19 | 45.7% | -16.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 62.1% | 1.61 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -6.9% | |
| X2 | 56.8% | 1.76 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -20.5% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -6.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB IFK Norrkoping | 53.2% | 1.88 | – | – | – | |
| DNB KuPS | 46.8% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.03 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -14.2% | |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.67 | 37.5% | +2.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.09 | 47.8% | -17.3% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 60.4% | 1.65 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -1.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.37 | 73.0% | -11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 35.3% | 2.83 | 2.74 | 36.5% | -3.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 31.8% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 39.6% | 2.52 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 28.6% | 3.50 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.604 × 1.63 − 1 = -0.015 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | IFK Norrkoping | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWWDWD | LDLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 0-3-3 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 17% |
| BTTS | 17% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Probabilities are almost level: 43 / 19 / 38% for home, draw, away.
Form
IFK Norrkoping have four wins from their last six (W W W D W D). Latest: 2–0 away at IFK Varnamo. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for KuPS: L D L D D L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 0–2 at home to Inter Turku. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG IFK Norrkoping 1.56 · KuPS 1.44 · total 3.00. High total: over 2.5 62%, BTTS 65%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 60%, odds 1.63 v fair 1.65. Most probable score: IFK Norrkoping 2–1 KuPS. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for IFK Norrkoping vs KuPS?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.63 by the bookmakers.
What are the IFK Norrkoping v KuPS probabilities?
IFK Norrkoping win 43%, draw 19%, KuPS win 38%.
What is the most probable score for IFK Norrkoping vs KuPS?
IFK Norrkoping 2–1 KuPS is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for IFK Norrkoping vs KuPS?
IFK Norrkoping 1.56, KuPS 1.44 – over 2.5 at 62%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is IFK Norrkoping vs KuPS?
Thursday 19 November 2026, 14:00 WAT – Friendlies Clubs.