- λ home
- 1.19
- λ away
- 0.95
- Σλ total
- 2.14
- P(over 2.5)
- 37%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 1–0 14.0%
Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sol de Mayo v Guillermo Brown: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Sol de Mayo v Guillermo Brown are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sol de Mayo (home) | 1.20 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| Guillermo Brown (away) | 0.71 | 0.74 | 1.54 | 0.81 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.97 × 0.97 ≈ 1.14
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.95 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.07 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.14 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.19, λaway = 0.95
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 29.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sol de Mayo | 42.2% | 46.0% | 41.4% | 44.1% |
| X Draw | 32.4% | 19.0% | 30.7% | 23.9% |
| 2 Guillermo Brown | 25.4% | 35.0% | 27.8% | 32.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sol de Mayo | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -5.2% | |
| X · Draw | 23.9% | 4.18 | 2.90 | 34.5% | -30.6% | |
| 2 · Guillermo Brown | 32.0% | 3.13 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +2.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 68.0% | 1.47 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -13.0% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -12.2% | |
| 12 | 76.1% | 1.31 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -1.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sol de Mayo | 57.9% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Guillermo Brown | 42.1% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -6.8% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -8.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -5.1% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.7% | 5.34 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -15.7% | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.3% | 1.23 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 52.0% | 1.92 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +9.1% | |
| BTTS no | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -19.8% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.6% | 3.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.4% | 4.47 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.520 × 2.10 − 1 = +0.091 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.083 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sol de Mayo | Guillermo Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLLWD | WLWLLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 3-0-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 50% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Sol de Mayo 44%, draw 24%, Guillermo Brown 32%. Standings: Sol de Mayo 28th on 18, Guillermo Brown 34th on 17.
Form
Sequence for Sol de Mayo: L W L L W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Fundacion Amigos. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Guillermo Brown, last six: W L W L L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Santamarina. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Previous 2: Sol de Mayo 2, Guillermo Brown 0, drawn 0, 1.0 goals per meeting. Last meeting (Jun 2026): Guillermo Brown 0–1 Sol de Mayo. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Sol de Mayo 1.19 · Guillermo Brown 0.95 · total 2.14. Low total: under 2.5 63%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 52%, odds 2.10 v fair 1.92. Most probable score: Sol de Mayo 2–1 Guillermo Brown. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 21 Jun 2026Guillermo Brown0–1Sol de Mayo
- 19 Apr 2026Sol de Mayo1–0Guillermo Brown
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 52, priced around 2.10 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sol de Mayo v Guillermo Brown probabilities?
Sol de Mayo win 44%, draw 24%, Guillermo Brown win 32%.
What is the most probable score for Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown?
Sol de Mayo 2–1 Guillermo Brown is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown?
Sol de Mayo 1.19, Guillermo Brown 0.95 – over 2.5 at 37%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Sol de Mayo vs Guillermo Brown?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Sol De Mayo – Torneo Federal A.