- λ home
- 1.54
- λ away
- 0.51
- Σλ total
- 2.04
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.9%
Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy prediction & xG model: Gimnasia Concepción to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Gimnasia Concepción v Independiente De Chivilcoy: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
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- Arena tipGimnasia Concepción to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Gimnasia Concepción v Independiente De Chivilcoy are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (24 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Concepción (home) | 1.20 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 1.01 |
| Independiente De Chivilcoy (away) | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.60 | 0.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.86 × 0.98 ≈ 1.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.41 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.86 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.04 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.54, λaway = 0.51
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 62.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.0%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Gimnasia Concepción | 49.1% | 69.0% | 55.1% | 63.2% |
| X Draw | 37.2% | 22.0% | 27.9% | 24.5% |
| 2 Independiente De Chivilcoy | 13.7% | 9.0% | 17.0% | 12.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.120 → 12.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Gimnasia Concepción pick | 63.2% | 1.58 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +2.3% | |
| X · Draw | 24.5% | 4.09 | 3.20 | 31.3% | -21.7% | |
| 2 · Independiente De Chivilcoy | 12.4% | 8.09 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -35.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.6% | 1.14 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -2.7% | |
| X2 | 36.8% | 2.71 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -22.6% | |
| 12 | 75.5% | 1.32 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -3.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Gimnasia Concepción | 83.6% | 1.20 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Independiente De Chivilcoy | 16.4% | 6.11 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -7.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 38.5% | 2.60 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -3.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35.5% | 2.82 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -11.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -3.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.8% | 5.61 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -19.8% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.5% | 2.30 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +8.9% | |
| BTTS no | 56.5% | 1.77 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -15.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.0% | 2.38 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 47.1% | 2.12 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 10.9% | 9.17 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.632 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.023 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.037 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.9% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Gimnasia Concepción | Independiente De Chivilcoy |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDWLD | WDLDDL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 0.17 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 0% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 83% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Gimnasia Concepción 63% to win. Standings: Gimnasia Concepción 33rd on 17, Independiente De Chivilcoy 25th on 19.
Form
Gimnasia Concepción, last six: W W D W L D – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Atletico Escobar. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Independiente De Chivilcoy, last six: W D L D D L – one win in total. Latest: 2–0 at home to Tucuman Central. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Independiente De Chivilcoy 0–0 Gimnasia Concepción. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Gimnasia Concepción 1.54 · Independiente De Chivilcoy 0.51 · total 2.04. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Gimnasia Concepción to win, probability 63%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.58. Most probable score: Gimnasia Concepción 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Jun 2026Independiente De Chivilcoy0–0Gimnasia Concepción
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
The Model pick is Gimnasia Concepción to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the Gimnasia Concepción v Independiente De Chivilcoy probabilities?
Gimnasia Concepción win 63%, draw 24%, Independiente De Chivilcoy win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Gimnasia Concepción 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Gimnasia Concepción 1.54, Independiente De Chivilcoy 0.51 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Gimnasia Concepción vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:30 WAT, at Estadio Manuel y Ramon Nunez – Torneo Federal A.