- λ home
- 1.36
- λ away
- 0.53
- Σλ total
- 1.89
- P(over 2.5)
- 34%
- P(BTTS)
- 49%
- Modal score
- 1–0 20.6%
Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ. prediction & xG model: Costa Brava to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Costa Brava v Juventud Unida Univ.: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipCosta Brava to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Costa Brava v Juventud Unida Univ. are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costa Brava (home) | 1.20 | 1.01 | 0.75 | 0.91 |
| Juventud Unida Univ. (away) | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.96 | 0.51 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.01 × 0.75 ≈ 0.91
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.42 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.45 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.25 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.89 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.36, λaway = 0.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 57.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 14.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 20.6%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Costa Brava | 42.2% | 65.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% |
| X Draw | 38.7% | 23.0% | 30.0% | 25.9% |
| 2 Juventud Unida Univ. | 19.1% | 12.0% | 20.0% | 15.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Costa Brava pick | 58.7% | 1.70 | 1.80 | 55.6% | +5.7% | |
| X · Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -22.2% | |
| 2 · Juventud Unida Univ. | 15.4% | 6.51 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -30.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | 2.42 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -24.4% | |
| 12 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -3.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Costa Brava | 79.3% | 1.26 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventud Unida Univ. | 20.7% | 4.82 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -13.0% | |
| Under 1.5 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +3.7% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.38 | 42.0% | -18.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 16.5% | 6.07 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -25.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -2.3% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | 2.04 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +7.7% | |
| BTTS no | 51.1% | 1.96 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -17.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 38.1% | 2.63 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 49.8% | 2.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 12.1% | 8.26 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.587 × 1.80 − 1 = +0.057 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.071 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.8% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Costa Brava | Juventud Unida Univ. |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWDDDL | LDLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-3-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Costa Brava 59%, draw 26%, Juventud Unida Univ. 15%. Standings: Costa Brava 27th on 18, Juventud Unida Univ. 31st on 17.
Form
Costa Brava have two wins from their last six (W W D D D L). Latest: 1–0 away at Circulo Deportivo. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Juventud Unida Univ. have one win from their last six (L D L W L D). Latest: 0–1 away at Deportivo Rincon. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Juventud Unida Univ. 0–0 Costa Brava. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Costa Brava 1.36 · Juventud Unida Univ. 0.53 · total 1.89. Low total: under 2.5 66%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Costa Brava to win, probability 59%, odds 1.80 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Costa Brava 1–0 Juventud Unida Univ.. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 7 Jun 2026Juventud Unida Univ.0–0Costa Brava
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ.?
The Model pick is Costa Brava to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.80 by the bookmakers.
What are the Costa Brava v Juventud Unida Univ. probabilities?
Costa Brava win 59%, draw 26%, Juventud Unida Univ. win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ.?
Costa Brava 1–0 Juventud Unida Univ. is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ.?
Costa Brava 1.36, Juventud Unida Univ. 0.53 – over 2.5 at 34%, BTTS at 49%.
What time is Costa Brava vs Juventud Unida Univ.?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Nuevo Pacaembu – Torneo Federal A.