- λ home
- 0.84
- λ away
- 0.93
- Σλ total
- 1.77
- P(over 2.5)
- 27%
- P(BTTS)
- 48%
- Modal score
- 0–0 17.0%
Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Antoniana prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Argentino Monte Maíz v Juventud Antoniana: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Argentino Monte Maíz v Juventud Antoniana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (22 and 26 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino Monte Maíz (home) | 1.20 | 1.19 | 0.96 | 1.38 |
| Juventud Antoniana (away) | 0.71 | 0.91 | 0.81 | 0.53 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.19 × 0.96 ≈ 1.38
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.91 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.71 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.83 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.77 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.84, λaway = 0.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 30.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 33.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 36.0%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 17.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Argentino Monte Maíz | 56.6% | 35.0% | 35.2% | 35.1% |
| X Draw | 29.5% | 19.0% | 32.7% | 24.7% |
| 2 Juventud Antoniana | 13.9% | 46.0% | 32.1% | 40.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.113 → 11.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Argentino Monte Maíz | 35.1% | 2.85 | 2.55 | 39.2% | -10.5% | |
| X · Draw | 24.7% | 4.04 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -32.0% | |
| 2 · Juventud Antoniana | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.80 | 35.7% | +12.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 59.8% | 1.67 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -20.4% | |
| X2 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -6.5% | |
| 12 | 75.3% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Argentino Monte Maíz | 46.6% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Juventud Antoniana | 53.4% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 53.3% | 1.88 | 1.73 | 57.8% | -7.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 46.7% | 2.14 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -6.6% | |
| Over 2.5 | 26.9% | 3.71 | 3.40 | 29.4% | -8.4% | |
| Under 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -5.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 11.9% | 8.40 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -16.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 88.1% | 1.14 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -4.9% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 47.7% | 2.10 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +24.9% | |
| BTTS no | 52.3% | 1.91 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -24.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 22.0% | 4.54 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 53.0% | 1.89 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.9% | 4.01 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.533 × 1.73 − 1 = -0.078 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Argentino Monte Maíz | Juventud Antoniana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLLLD | DLLDWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-3-3 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Argentino Monte Maíz 35%, draw 25%, Juventud Antoniana 40%. Standings: Argentino Monte Maíz 17th on 23, Juventud Antoniana 11th on 25.
Form
Argentino Monte Maíz, last six: D D L L L D – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–1 away at Alvarado. Only 0.7 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Juventud Antoniana, last six: D L L D W W – two wins in total. Latest: 0–0 at home to Villa Mitre. Per match: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Argentino Monte Maíz 0.84 · Juventud Antoniana 0.93 · total 1.77. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 73%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 53%, odds 1.73 v fair 1.88. Most probable score: Argentino Monte Maíz 0–2 Juventud Antoniana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Antoniana?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 53, priced around 1.73 by the bookmakers.
What are the Argentino Monte Maíz v Juventud Antoniana probabilities?
Argentino Monte Maíz win 35%, draw 25%, Juventud Antoniana win 40%.
What is the most probable score for Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Antoniana?
Argentino Monte Maíz 0–2 Juventud Antoniana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Antoniana?
Argentino Monte Maíz 0.84, Juventud Antoniana 0.93 – over 2.5 at 27%, BTTS at 48%.
What time is Argentino Monte Maíz vs Juventud Antoniana?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:45 WAT, at Estadio Modesto Marrone – Torneo Federal A.