- λ home
- 1.14
- λ away
- 0.84
- Σλ total
- 1.97
- P(over 2.5)
- 35%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 15.8%
San Martín Mendoza vs Fundacion Amigos prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
San Martín Mendoza v Fundacion Amigos: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for San Martín Mendoza v Fundacion Amigos are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 21 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Mendoza (home) | 1.20 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Fundacion Amigos (away) | 0.71 | 0.93 | 1.02 | 0.68 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 0.95 × 0.83 ≈ 0.95
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.63 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.71 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.19 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.97 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.14, λaway = 0.84
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 42.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 30.6%
- Σ away-win cells
- 26.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 15.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 San Martín Mendoza | 39.2% | 48.0% | 42.6% | 45.7% |
| X Draw | 36.3% | 19.0% | 31.9% | 24.4% |
| 2 Fundacion Amigos | 24.5% | 33.0% | 25.5% | 29.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.119 → 11.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · San Martín Mendoza | 45.7% | 2.19 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -4.0% | |
| X · Draw | 24.4% | 4.09 | 2.80 | 35.7% | -31.6% | |
| 2 · Fundacion Amigos | 29.9% | 3.35 | 3.50 | 28.6% | +4.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -14.4% | |
| X2 | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.60 | 62.5% | -13.1% | |
| 12 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +0.5% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB San Martín Mendoza | 60.5% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fundacion Amigos | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -9.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -1.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 34.5% | 2.89 | 2.50 | 40.0% | -13.6% | |
| Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -1.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 17.2% | 5.81 | 4.50 | 22.2% | -22.5% | |
| Under 3.5 | 82.8% | 1.21 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.1% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.6% | 1.98 | 2.20 | 45.5% | +11.4% | |
| BTTS no | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -20.0% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 29.6% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 20.3% | 4.93 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.506 × 2.20 − 1 = +0.114 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.095 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | San Martín Mendoza | Fundacion Amigos |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWWWDD | WLDLWD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% |
| BTTS | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: San Martín Mendoza 46%, draw 24%, Fundacion Amigos 30%. Standings: San Martín Mendoza 23rd on 19, Fundacion Amigos 21st on 21.
Form
San Martín Mendoza, last six: D W W W D D – three wins in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Germinal de Rawson. Per match: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Fundacion Amigos: W L D L W D, so two victories in six. Latest: 2–0 at home to Sol de Mayo. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jul 2026): Fundacion Amigos 0–0 San Martín Mendoza. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG San Martín Mendoza 1.14 · Fundacion Amigos 0.84 · total 1.97. Low total: under 2.5 65%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 51%, odds 2.20 v fair 1.98. Most probable score: San Martín Mendoza 2–1 Fundacion Amigos. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Jul 2026Fundacion Amigos0–0San Martín Mendoza
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for San Martín Mendoza vs Fundacion Amigos?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 51, priced around 2.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the San Martín Mendoza v Fundacion Amigos probabilities?
San Martín Mendoza win 46%, draw 24%, Fundacion Amigos win 30%.
What is the most probable score for San Martín Mendoza vs Fundacion Amigos?
San Martín Mendoza 2–1 Fundacion Amigos is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for San Martín Mendoza vs Fundacion Amigos?
San Martín Mendoza 1.14, Fundacion Amigos 0.84 – over 2.5 at 35%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is San Martín Mendoza vs Fundacion Amigos?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 00:30 WAT, at Estadio General Jose de San Martin – Torneo Federal A.