- λ home
- 0.90
- λ away
- 0.85
- Σλ total
- 1.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 27%
- P(BTTS)
- 46%
- Modal score
- 0–0 17.3%
Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Kimberley Mar del Plata v Alvarado: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOver 1.5 goals✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Kimberley Mar del Plata v Alvarado are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (23 and 25 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimberley Mar del Plata (home) | 1.20 | 1.10 | 0.69 | 0.91 |
| Alvarado (away) | 0.71 | 1.28 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.10 × 0.69 ≈ 0.91
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.53 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 1.88 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.90, λaway = 0.85
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 34.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 33.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.9%
- Most probable score
- 0–0 · 17.3%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Kimberley Mar del Plata | 39.4% | 40.0% | 36.7% | 38.6% |
| X Draw | 37.6% | 20.0% | 33.3% | 25.6% |
| 2 Alvarado | 23.1% | 40.0% | 30.0% | 35.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Kimberley Mar del Plata | 38.6% | 2.59 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -5.4% | |
| X · Draw | 25.6% | 3.91 | 2.70 | 37.0% | -30.9% | |
| 2 · Alvarado | 35.8% | 2.79 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +7.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.2% | 1.56 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -16.5% | |
| X2 | 61.4% | 1.63 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -11.6% | |
| 12 | 74.4% | 1.34 | 1.36 | 73.5% | +1.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Kimberley Mar del Plata | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Alvarado | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 54.0% | 1.85 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -9.8% | |
| Under 1.5 | 46.0% | 2.17 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -3.4% | |
| Over 2.5 | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -11.1% | |
| Under 2.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -3.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 12.3% | 8.14 | 6.50 | 15.4% | -20.1% | |
| Under 3.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -3.5% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 46.2% | 2.17 | 2.50 | 40.0% | +15.4% | |
| BTTS no | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -19.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 24.1% | 4.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 53.4% | 1.87 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.5% | 4.45 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.540 × 1.67 − 1 = -0.098 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Kimberley Mar del Plata | Alvarado |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWLWDW | DDWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-3-0 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 17% |
| BTTS | 67% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 83% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
No clear favourite in the grid – Kimberley Mar del Plata 39%, draw 26%, Alvarado 36%. Standings: Kimberley Mar del Plata 8th on 26, Alvarado 5th on 27.
Form
Kimberley Mar del Plata, last six: L W L W D W – three wins in total. Latest: 0–1 away at Olimpo Bahia Blanca. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Alvarado: D D W W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Argentino Monte Maíz. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.2 conceded. 5 shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Jun 2026): Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–2 Alvarado. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Kimberley Mar del Plata 0.90 · Alvarado 0.85 · total 1.75. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 73%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.67 v fair 1.85. Most probable score: Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–0 Alvarado. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 14 Jun 2026Kimberley Mar del Plata2–2Alvarado
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.67 by the bookmakers.
What are the Kimberley Mar del Plata v Alvarado probabilities?
Kimberley Mar del Plata win 39%, draw 26%, Alvarado win 36%.
What is the most probable score for Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado?
Kimberley Mar del Plata 2–0 Alvarado is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado?
Kimberley Mar del Plata 0.90, Alvarado 0.85 – over 2.5 at 27%, BTTS at 46%.
What time is Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Alvarado?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:00 WAT, at Estadio Jose Antonio Valle – Torneo Federal A.