- λ home
- 1.29
- λ away
- 0.48
- Σλ total
- 1.76
- P(over 2.5)
- 31%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–0 22.0%
Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Villa Mitre v Huracan Las Heras: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 3–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Villa Mitre v Huracan Las Heras are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 19 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Mitre (home) | 1.20 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.26 |
| Huracan Las Heras (away) | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.39 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.20 × 1.09 × 0.96 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.64 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 1.34 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.12 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 1.76 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.29, λaway = 0.48
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.8%
- Σ draw cells
- 29.4%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.8%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 22.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villa Mitre | 57.2% | 63.0% | 55.0% | 59.7% |
| X Draw | 31.7% | 20.0% | 28.8% | 23.7% |
| 2 Huracan Las Heras | 11.1% | 17.0% | 16.2% | 16.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.122 → 12.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villa Mitre | 59.7% | 1.68 | 1.62 | 61.7% | -3.4% | |
| X · Draw | 23.7% | 4.22 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -26.6% | |
| 2 · Huracan Las Heras | 16.7% | 6.00 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -8.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 83.3% | 1.20 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -8.3% | |
| X2 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -15.3% | |
| 12 | 76.3% | 1.31 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villa Mitre | 78.2% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Huracan Las Heras | 21.8% | 4.58 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -13.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +3.0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30.7% | 3.26 | 2.62 | 38.2% | -19.5% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 69.3% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -0.2% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.4% | 6.93 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -27.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.6% | 1.17 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -2.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.0% | 2.27 | 2.62 | 38.2% | +15.2% | |
| BTTS no | 56.0% | 1.79 | 1.44 | 69.4% | -19.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 36.9% | 2.71 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 51.7% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.4% | 8.76 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.693 × 1.44 − 1 = -0.002 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villa Mitre | Huracan Las Heras |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDLDWD | WLLLDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 1-4-1 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 0% |
| BTTS | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 67% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Villa Mitre ahead at 60%, against 17% for Huracan Las Heras and 24% for the draw. Standings: Villa Mitre 16th on 23, Huracan Las Heras 19th on 23.
Form
Villa Mitre, last six: D D L D W D – one win in total. Latest: 0–0 away at Juventud Antoniana. Only 0.8 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Huracan Las Heras: W L L L D W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–0 at home to Juventud Antoniana. Only 0.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villa Mitre 1.29 · Huracan Las Heras 0.48 · total 1.76. A quiet game expected, with under 2.5 at 69%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 69%, odds 1.44 v fair 1.44. Most probable score: Villa Mitre 1–0 Huracan Las Heras. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Torneo Federal A table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | +9 | 31 |
| 2 |  Douglas Haig | 18 | +7 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | +12 | 30 |
| 4 |  San Martin Formosa | 16 | +6 | 30 |
| 5 |  Alvarado | 16 | +12 | 27 |
| 6 |  Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | +5 | 27 |
| 7 |  Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 8 |  Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 9 |  Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | +6 | 26 |
| 10 |  Sol de América | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 11 |  Juventud Antoniana | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 12 |  Cipolletti | 16 | +4 | 25 |
| 13 |  Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 14 |  9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | +1 | 25 |
| 15 |  Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 |  Villa Mitre | 16 | +6 | 23 |
| 17 |  Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | +4 | 23 |
| 18 |  Atenas | 16 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 |  Huracan Las Heras | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 |  Atletico Escobar | 18 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 |  Fundacion Amigos | 16 | +3 | 21 |
| 22 |  Deportivo Rincon | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 |  San Martín Mendoza | 16 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 |  Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 |  Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 |  El Linqueño | 18 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 |  Costa Brava | 16 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 |  Sol de Mayo | 16 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 |  Boca Unidos | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 |  Germinal de Rawson | 16 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 |  Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 |  Tucuman Central | 16 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 |  Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 |  Guillermo Brown | 16 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 |  Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 |  Santamarina | 16 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 |  Circulo Deportivo | 16 | -8 | 13 |
More Torneo Federal A predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 69, priced around 1.44 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villa Mitre v Huracan Las Heras probabilities?
Villa Mitre win 60%, draw 24%, Huracan Las Heras win 17%.
What is the most probable score for Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras?
Villa Mitre 1–0 Huracan Las Heras is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras?
Villa Mitre 1.29, Huracan Las Heras 0.48 – over 2.5 at 31%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Villa Mitre vs Huracan Las Heras?
Sunday 30 August 2026, 19:30 WAT, at Estadio El Fortin – Torneo Federal A.