Strongest picks tomorrow

The safest football picks for Monday 16 November

This page lists the tips with the highest chance of winning on Monday 16 November, strongest first. It is for days when you care more about landing a bet than about the size of the price. "Safest" is a relative word – none of these is certain – but they are the selections where every number we have points the same way.

What makes a pick "safe"

A pick earns its place with a high chance, agreement between our numbers and the bookmakers, and a match where little is uncertain: a clear gap between the teams, settled line-ups and no obvious reason for rotation. Many of the picks here are double chance or low goal lines, because those markets win more often by design.

The catch with high-probability tips

High chance usually means low odds. A 90% tip at 1.08 wins nine times in ten – and the tenth time wipes out the profit from about twelve winners. That is why each pick shows its fair odds next to the bookmaker price: if the price is below fair, even a very likely winner is a poor bet over time. Look for the picks where the price still clears the fair odds.

How to use the list

• Pick one or two as singles rather than stacking ten into one slip.
• If you build an accumulator, combine only a few legs – see how the joint chance falls in our accumulator bets.
• Check team news an hour before kick-off; a short price on a weakened favourite is the most common way a "safe" pick loses.

Every result recorded

Safe picks are settled on the 90-minute score like everything else and kept in the prediction archive. Over time you will see that they win often – and that the occasional loss is exactly what the percentages said would happen. Keep stakes small and steady. 18+.

Worked example: when "safe" is not good value

Two picks sit near the top of the list. Pick A has a 91% chance at 1.07; fair odds are 1.10, so the price is below fair and the expected value is 0.91 × 1.07 − 1 = −0.026. Pick B has an 84% chance at 1.25; fair odds 1.19, expected value 0.84 × 1.25 − 1 = +0.05. Pick A wins more often, but over a hundred bets Pick B makes money and Pick A loses it. "Safest" tells you how likely a tip is; the fair odds column tells you whether it is worth backing. Read both.

Safe-pick checklist

• Price at or above fair odds.
• No late team news against the favourite.
• Stake no larger than a normal single.
• One or two picks, not a pile of them in one slip.

Quick answers

Are these the same as the banker of the day? The banker is chosen from this list, but it also has to be fairly priced. Some very safe picks are too short to be the banker.

Why do safe picks still lose? Because a 90% chance still leaves one loss in ten – usually the day nobody expected it.