- λ home
- 2.63
- λ away
- 1.21
- Σλ total
- 3.83
- P(over 2.5)
- 67%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.0%
Cuba vs Grenada prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Cuba 70% · draw 15% · Grenada 15%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Cuba v Grenada: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Cuba v Grenada are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba (home) | 1.67 | 1.41 | 1.23 | 2.90 |
| Grenada (away) | 1.82 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 1.40 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 1.41 × 1.23 ≈ 2.90
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 4.29 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.88 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.10 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.83 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.63, λaway = 1.21
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 67.7%
- Σ draw cells
- 16.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.4%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Cuba | 67.9% | 65.0% | 73.8% | 69.7% |
| X Draw | 16.3% | 11.0% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| 2 Grenada | 15.9% | 24.0% | 9.0% | 14.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.110 → 11.0% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Cuba | 69.7% | 1.43 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -15.0% | |
| X · Draw | 15.4% | 6.49 | 5.25 | 19.0% | -19.1% | |
| 2 · Grenada | 14.9% | 6.72 | 10.00 | 10.0% | +48.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 85.1% | 1.17 | 1.12 | 89.3% | -4.7% | |
| X2 | 30.3% | 3.30 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -31.9% | |
| 12 | 84.6% | 1.18 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +5.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Cuba | 82.4% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Grenada | 17.6% | 5.69 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -0.2% | |
| Under 1.5 | 14.7% | 6.80 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -26.4% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 66.8% | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.7% | +4.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 33.2% | 3.01 | 2.35 | 42.6% | -22.0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 46.2% | 2.16 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +10.0% | |
| Under 3.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | 1.53 | 65.4% | -17.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.4% | 1.94 | 2.10 | 47.6% | +8.0% | |
| BTTS no | 48.6% | 2.06 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -18.9% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 51.2% | 1.95 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 31.8% | 3.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.0% | 5.88 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.668 × 1.57 − 1 = +0.049 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.085 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Cuba | Grenada |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWWD | WLWLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-3-0 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 3.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 2.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Cuba at 70%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge.
Form
Cuba have three wins from their last six (W D D W W D). Latest: 7–1 away at Bonaire. 3.2 goals a match in that spell.
Grenada, last six: W L W L L L – two wins in total. Latest: 3–2 at home to St. Kitts and Nevis. Per match: 1.2 scored, 2.8 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Grenada 0–3 Cuba. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Cuba 2.63 · Grenada 1.21 · total 3.83. High total: over 2.5 67%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 67%, odds 1.57 v fair 1.50. Most probable score: Cuba 2–1 Grenada. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Sep 2026Grenada0–3Cuba
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Puerto RicoFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Cuba vs Grenada?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 67, priced around 1.57 by the bookmakers.
What are the Cuba v Grenada probabilities?
Cuba win 70%, draw 15%, Grenada win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Cuba vs Grenada?
Cuba 2–1 Grenada is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Cuba vs Grenada?
Cuba 2.63, Grenada 1.21 – over 2.5 at 67%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Cuba vs Grenada?
Monday 16 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Estadio La Polar – CONCACAF Nations League.