- λ home
- 2.14
- λ away
- 1.34
- Σλ total
- 3.48
- P(over 2.5)
- 66%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 2–1 9.4%
Guadeloupe vs Bermuda prediction & xG model: Over 2.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Guadeloupe 60% · draw 18% · Bermuda 22%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Guadeloupe v Bermuda: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Guadeloupe v Bermuda are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (5 and 5 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadeloupe (home) | 1.67 | 0.94 | 1.33 | 2.08 |
| Bermuda (away) | 1.82 | 0.91 | 0.88 | 1.45 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.67 × 0.94 × 1.33 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.54 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.63 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.28 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 3.48 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.14, λaway = 1.34
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 55.6%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 23.7%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Guadeloupe | 51.6% | 54.0% | 71.3% | 60.4% |
| X Draw | 21.9% | 11.0% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| 2 Bermuda | 26.5% | 35.0% | 10.6% | 21.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.105 → 10.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Guadeloupe | 60.4% | 1.66 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -23.3% | |
| X · Draw | 17.8% | 5.62 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -11.0% | |
| 2 · Bermuda | 21.8% | 4.59 | 8.50 | 11.8% | +85.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -15.5% | |
| X2 | 39.6% | 2.53 | 3.00 | 33.3% | +18.8% | |
| 12 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -3.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Guadeloupe | 73.5% | 1.36 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Bermuda | 26.5% | 3.77 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -3.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 15.5% | 6.47 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -14.9% | |
| Over 2.5 pick | 65.7% | 1.52 | 1.48 | 67.6% | -2.8% | |
| Under 2.5 | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2.60 | 38.5% | -10.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 45.1% | 2.22 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -5.2% | |
| Under 3.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -8.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -4.7% | |
| BTTS no | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -12.3% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 42.4% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 35.4% | 2.82 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 22.2% | 4.51 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.657 × 1.48 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Guadeloupe | Bermuda |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLLDW | LLLLLL |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-2 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 100% |
| BTTS | 40% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Guadeloupe 60% to win.
Form
Guadeloupe, last five: W L L D W – two wins in total. Latest: 3–0 away at Barbados. Per match: 1.4 scored, 1.4 conceded.
Bermuda have zero wins from their last six (L L L L L L). Latest: 1–2 at home to St. Lucia. Per match: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded. No shut-outs in that run.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Bermuda 1–2 Guadeloupe. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Guadeloupe 2.14 · Bermuda 1.34 · total 3.48. Goals expected – 66% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Model selection
Selection: Over 2.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.48 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Guadeloupe 2–1 Bermuda. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 25 Sep 2026Bermuda1–2Guadeloupe
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What is the Winning Arena prediction for Guadeloupe vs Bermuda?
The Model pick is Over 2.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.48 by the bookmakers.
What are the Guadeloupe v Bermuda probabilities?
Guadeloupe win 60%, draw 18%, Bermuda win 22%.
What is the most probable score for Guadeloupe vs Bermuda?
Guadeloupe 2–1 Bermuda is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Guadeloupe vs Bermuda?
Guadeloupe 2.14, Bermuda 1.34 – over 2.5 at 66%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Guadeloupe vs Bermuda?
Monday 16 November 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Stade Roger Zami – CONCACAF Nations League.