- λ home
- 0.66
- λ away
- 2.16
- Σλ total
- 2.82
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 0–2 14.0%
Somalia vs Ghana prediction & xG model: Under 3.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Somalia 11% · draw 16% · Ghana 73%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Somalia v Ghana: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Somalia v Ghana are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (5 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia (home) | 1.66 | 0.66 | 1.02 | – |
| Ghana (away) | 1.38 | 0.83 | 1.01 | – |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 0.66 × 1.02 ≈ –
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.33 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 3.22 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.82 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.66, λaway = 2.16
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 9.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 72.1%
- Most probable score
- 0–2 · 14.0%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Somalia | – | 17.0% | 3.1% | 11.1% |
| X Draw | – | 20.0% | 9.3% | 15.5% |
| 2 Ghana | – | 63.0% | 87.6% | 73.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Somalia | 11.1% | 8.97 | 30.00 | 3.3% | +234.4% | |
| X · Draw | 15.5% | 6.45 | 9.90 | 10.1% | +53.5% | |
| 2 · Ghana | 73.3% | 1.36 | 1.05 | 95.2% | -23.0% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 26.7% | 3.75 | 7.50 | 13.3% | +99.9% | |
| X2 | 88.9% | 1.13 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.02 | 98.0% | -13.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Somalia | 13.2% | 7.58 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Ghana | 86.8% | 1.15 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.26 | 1.11 | 90.1% | -11.9% | |
| Under 1.5 | 20.7% | 4.84 | 4.90 | 20.4% | +1.2% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.45 | 69.0% | -16.0% | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.1% | 2.38 | 2.41 | 41.5% | +1.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 36.5% | 2.74 | 2.23 | 44.8% | -18.7% | |
| Under 3.5 pick | 63.5% | 1.57 | 1.60 | 62.5% | +1.7% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.6% | 2.24 | 3.26 | 30.7% | +45.3% | |
| BTTS no | 55.4% | 1.80 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -29.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 11.0% | 9.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 37.5% | 2.67 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 51.5% | 1.94 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.635 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.017 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.028 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.7% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Somalia | Ghana |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LLLDD | WLLLLD |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-2-3 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per match | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 0.20 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 33% |
| BTTS | 20% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 80% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Ghana favoured on the road at 73% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage.
Form
Sequence for Somalia: L L L D D, so zero victories in five. Latest: 0–2 away at Ghana. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.2 per match.
Ghana have one win from their last six (W L L L L D). Latest: 2–0 at home to Somalia. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): Ghana 2–0 Somalia. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Somalia 0.66 · Ghana 2.16 · total 2.82. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 58%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection
Selection: Under 3.5 goals, probability 64%, odds 1.60 v fair 1.57. Most probable score: Somalia 0–2 Ghana. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Nov 2026Ghana2–0Somalia
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GuineaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Somalia vs Ghana?
The Model pick is Under 3.5 goals with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.60 by the bookmakers.
What are the Somalia v Ghana probabilities?
Somalia win 11%, draw 16%, Ghana win 73%.
What is the most probable score for Somalia vs Ghana?
Somalia 0–2 Ghana is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Somalia vs Ghana?
Somalia 0.66, Ghana 2.16 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Somalia vs Ghana?
Monday 16 November 2026, 16:00 WAT, at Accra Sports Stadium – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.