- λ home
- 1.32
- λ away
- 1.11
- Σλ total
- 2.43
- P(over 2.5)
- 40%
- P(BTTS)
- 45%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.9%
Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea prediction & xG model: Over 1.5 goals
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Zimbabwe 45% · draw 19% · Equatorial Guinea 35%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Zimbabwe v Equatorial Guinea: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Zimbabwe v Equatorial Guinea are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Not enough history for team ratings – the goal estimate uses the statistical feed and the market line only.
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 45% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.16 | 55% |
| Blended total λ | 2.43 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.32, λaway = 1.11
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 41.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 27.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 31.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
With no ratings for these teams, the statistical feed is blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Zimbabwe | – | 48.0% | 41.8% | 45.4% |
| X Draw | – | 11.0% | 30.3% | 19.1% |
| 2 Equatorial Guinea | – | 41.0% | 27.9% | 35.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Zimbabwe | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -0.1% | |
| X · Draw | 19.1% | 5.24 | 3.04 | 32.9% | -41.9% | |
| 2 · Equatorial Guinea | 35.5% | 2.82 | 3.30 | 30.3% | +17.1% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 64.5% | 1.55 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -17.4% | |
| X2 | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.59 | 62.9% | -13.2% | |
| 12 | 80.9% | 1.24 | 1.33 | 75.2% | +7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Zimbabwe | 56.1% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Equatorial Guinea | 43.9% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 pick | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -1.1% | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -16.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.46 | 40.7% | -0.9% | |
| Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -14.6% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20.3% | 4.92 | 5.05 | 19.8% | +2.6% | |
| Under 3.5 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -12.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.11 | 47.4% | -5.2% | |
| BTTS no | 55.1% | 1.82 | 1.63 | 61.3% | -10.2% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 30.6% | 3.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 24.6% | 4.06 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.660 × 1.50 − 1 = -0.011 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 5 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Zimbabwe | Equatorial Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLWLW | DWLLD |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals against / match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 0% |
| BTTS | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Zimbabwe ahead at 45%, against 35% for Equatorial Guinea and 19% for the draw. Standings: Zimbabwe 2nd on 9, Equatorial Guinea 2nd on 8.
Form
Sequence for Zimbabwe: D L W L W, so two victories in five. Latest: 0–0 away at Equatorial Guinea. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Sequence for Equatorial Guinea: D W L L D, so one victory in five. Latest: 0–0 at home to Zimbabwe. Only 0.4 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Nov 2026): Equatorial Guinea 0–0 Zimbabwe. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Zimbabwe 1.32 · Equatorial Guinea 1.11 · total 2.43. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 40%, BTTS 45%.
Model selection
Model selection: Over 1.5 goals, probability 66%, odds 1.50 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Zimbabwe 2–1 Equatorial Guinea. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Nov 2026Equatorial Guinea0–0Zimbabwe
Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Algeria | 6 | +14 | 16 |
| 2 |  Equatorial Guinea | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 3 |  Togo | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 |  Liberia | 6 | -8 | 4 |
More Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification predictions
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GuineaFrequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
The Model pick is Over 1.5 goals with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.50 by the bookmakers.
What are the Zimbabwe v Equatorial Guinea probabilities?
Zimbabwe win 45%, draw 19%, Equatorial Guinea win 35%.
What is the most probable score for Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
Zimbabwe 2–1 Equatorial Guinea is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
Zimbabwe 1.32, Equatorial Guinea 1.11 – over 2.5 at 40%, BTTS at 45%.
What time is Zimbabwe vs Equatorial Guinea?
Monday 16 November 2026, 14:00 WAT, at National Sports Stadium – Africa Cup Of Nations Qualification.