- λ home
- 0.94
- λ away
- 1.98
- Σλ total
- 2.92
- P(over 2.5)
- 56%
- P(BTTS)
- 60%
- Modal score
- 0–1 10.7%
Inca Aruba vs Águila prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
In-play probabilities
The pre-match expected goals, scaled to the minutes left and added to the current score. Updates every 30 seconds.
Pre-match: Inca Aruba 14% · draw 22% · Águila 64%. The live model cannot see red cards or substitutions – read it as a guide.
Inca Aruba v Águila: who are you backing?
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How the numbers for Inca Aruba v Águila are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inca Aruba (home) | 1.48 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Águila (away) | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.93 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.48 × 0.68 × 1.00 ≈ 1.01
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.94 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.89 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.92 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.92 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.94, λaway = 1.98
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 17.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 61.7%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 10.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Inca Aruba | 19.0% | 6.0% | 15.2% | 14.4% |
| X Draw | 22.9% | 20.0% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| 2 Águila | 58.1% | 74.0% | 63.1% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.109 → 10.9% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Inca Aruba | 14.4% | 6.95 | 5.93 | 16.9% | -14.7% | |
| X · Draw | 21.7% | 4.60 | 4.15 | 24.1% | -9.8% | |
| 2 · Águila | 63.9% | 1.57 | 1.43 | 69.9% | -8.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.1% | 2.77 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -13.3% | |
| X2 | 85.6% | 1.17 | 1.06 | 94.3% | -9.2% | |
| 12 | 78.3% | 1.28 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -10.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Inca Aruba | 18.4% | 5.44 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Águila | 81.6% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | 1.17 | 85.5% | -8.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 21.9% | 4.57 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -12.5% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | 1.64 | 61.0% | -8.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | 2.27 | 2.08 | 48.1% | -8.3% | |
| Over 3.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.59 | 38.6% | -11.4% | |
| Under 3.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.39 | 71.9% | -8.6% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.6% | 1.68 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +4.4% | |
| BTTS no | 40.4% | 2.48 | 1.93 | 51.8% | -22.1% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 16.6% | 6.01 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 38.6% | 2.59 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 44.8% | 2.23 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.596 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.044 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.058 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.5% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Inca Aruba | Águila |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LDLLLL | DLWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 0-1-5 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per match | 0.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / match | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Goals against / match | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 50% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Águila favoured on the road at 64% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Inca Aruba 12th on 17, Águila 4th on 31.
Form
Inca Aruba, last six: L D L L L L – zero wins in total. Latest: 1–4 away at Atletico Balboa. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Águila: D L W W D W, so three victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Municipal Limeño. 2.5 goals a match in that spell.
Head to head
Last meeting (Sep 2026): Águila 3–1 Inca Aruba. Old results carry little weight next to current ratings.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Inca Aruba 0.94 · Águila 1.98 · total 2.92. High total: over 2.5 56%, BTTS 60%.
Model selection
Selection: Both teams to score, probability 60%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.68. Most probable score: Inca Aruba 1–2 Águila. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →- 12 Sep 2026Águila3–1Inca Aruba
Primera Division table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Firpo | 20 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 |  Isidro Metapán | 20 | +6 | 35 |
| 3 |  FAS | 20 | +10 | 34 |
| 4 |  Águila | 20 | +9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Inter | 21 | +9 | 31 |
| 6 |  Platense | 20 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 |  Alianza | 20 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 |  Municipal Limeño | 21 | -1 | 24 |
| 9 |  Atletico Balboa | 20 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 |  Cacahuatique | 21 | -10 | 20 |
| 11 |  Fuerte San Francisco | 21 | -15 | 17 |
| 12 |  Inca Aruba | 20 | -22 | 17 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Inca Aruba vs Águila?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Inca Aruba v Águila probabilities?
Inca Aruba win 14%, draw 22%, Águila win 64%.
What is the most probable score for Inca Aruba vs Águila?
Inca Aruba 1–2 Águila is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Inca Aruba vs Águila?
Inca Aruba 0.94, Águila 1.98 – over 2.5 at 56%, BTTS at 60%.
What time is Inca Aruba vs Águila?
Monday 16 November 2026, 01:00 WAT – Primera Division.