Sturm Graz vs Rennes prediction & xG model: Rennes to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Sturm Graz v Rennes: how the Arena called it
- Full time
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- Votes
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- Takes
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- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipRennes to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Sturm Graz v Rennes are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (39 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz (home) | 1.66 | 1.53 | 1.06 | 2.70 |
| Rennes (away) | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.67 | 1.22 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.53 × 1.06 ≈ 2.70
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.93 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | – | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = –, λaway = –
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sturm Graz | 68.2% | 16.0% | 26.3% | 20.3% |
| X Draw | 17.0% | 10.0% | 25.6% | 16.5% |
| 2 Rennes | 14.9% | 74.0% | 48.2% | 63.1% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Sturm Graz | 20.3% | 4.92 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -28.9% | |
| X · Draw | 16.5% | 6.05 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -40.5% | |
| 2 · Rennes pick | 63.1% | 1.58 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +20.6% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 36.9% | 2.71 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -35.5% | |
| X2 | 79.7% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +3.6% | |
| 12 | 83.5% | 1.20 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +4.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Sturm Graz | 24.3% | 4.11 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rennes | 75.7% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.631 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.206 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.227 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Sturm Graz | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLDWL | WWWDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Goals against / match | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% |
| BTTS | 67% | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Rennes favoured on the road at 63% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Sturm Graz 24th on 4, Rennes 17th on 6.
Form
Sequence for Sturm Graz: W W L D W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 2–1 at home to Lask Linz. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Rennes, last six: W W W D L L – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 at home to Marseille. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Rennes to win, probability 63%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.58. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
The Model pick is Rennes to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Sturm Graz v Rennes probabilities?
Sturm Graz win 20%, draw 17%, Rennes win 63%.
What time is Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Merkur Arena – UEFA Europa League.