Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb prediction & xG model: Dinamo Zagreb to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Hapoel Beer Sheva v Dinamo Zagreb: how the Arena called it
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- Arena tipDinamo Zagreb to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
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How the numbers for Hapoel Beer Sheva v Dinamo Zagreb are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (32 and 37 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Beer Sheva (home) | 1.66 | 1.24 | 0.62 | 1.29 |
| Dinamo Zagreb (away) | 1.38 | 1.83 | 0.80 | 2.03 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.24 × 0.62 ≈ 1.29
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.32 | 100% |
| Blended total λ | – | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = –, λaway = –
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 23.7% | 21.0% | 26.3% | 23.2% |
| X Draw | 22.3% | 6.0% | 25.6% | 14.2% |
| 2 Dinamo Zagreb | 54.0% | 73.0% | 48.2% | 62.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Hapoel Beer Sheva | 23.2% | 4.31 | 3.50 | 28.6% | -18.7% | |
| X · Draw | 14.2% | 7.04 | 3.60 | 27.8% | -48.8% | |
| 2 · Dinamo Zagreb pick | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.91 | 52.4% | +19.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 37.4% | 2.67 | 1.83 | 54.6% | -31.5% | |
| X2 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.29 | 77.5% | -1.0% | |
| 12 | 85.8% | 1.17 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +7.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Hapoel Beer Sheva | 27.1% | 3.69 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Dinamo Zagreb | 72.9% | 1.37 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.626 × 1.91 − 1 = +0.195 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.214 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Hapoel Beer Sheva | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWLW | LWWDLW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 2.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.83 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83% |
| BTTS | 83% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Away favourites: Dinamo Zagreb 63%, Hapoel Beer Sheva 23%. Standings: Hapoel Beer Sheva 33rd on 1, Dinamo Zagreb 9th on 7.
Form
Hapoel Beer Sheva, last six: W L D W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–0 away at Hapoel Petah Tikva. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Dinamo Zagreb, last six: L W W D L W – three wins in total. Latest: 2–4 away at NK Osijek. Scoring rate: 2.2 per match – well above average.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Dinamo Zagreb to win, probability 63%, odds 1.91 v fair 1.60. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
The Model pick is Dinamo Zagreb to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.91 by the bookmakers.
What are the Hapoel Beer Sheva v Dinamo Zagreb probabilities?
Hapoel Beer Sheva win 23%, draw 14%, Dinamo Zagreb win 63%.
What time is Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Rapid-Giulesti Stadium – UEFA Europa League.