- λ home
- 1.11
- λ away
- 1.39
- Σλ total
- 2.50
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 53%
- Modal score
- 1–1 12.7%
Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo prediction & xG model: Draw
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Omonia Nicosia v Celta Vigo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDraw✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Omonia Nicosia v Celta Vigo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 37 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia (home) | 1.66 | 1.28 | 0.61 | 1.30 |
| Celta Vigo (away) | 1.38 | 1.14 | 0.62 | 0.97 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.28 × 0.61 ≈ 1.30
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.27 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.50 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.50 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.11, λaway = 1.39
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 29.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 43.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 12.7%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Omonia Nicosia | 43.4% | 10.0% | 25.0% | 16.3% |
| X Draw | 29.6% | 72.0% | 28.9% | 53.9% |
| 2 Celta Vigo | 27.1% | 18.0% | 46.2% | 29.8% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.083 → 8.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Omonia Nicosia | 16.3% | 6.14 | 3.70 | 27.0% | -39.8% | |
| X · Draw pick | 53.9% | 1.86 | 3.20 | 31.3% | +72.4% | |
| 2 · Celta Vigo | 29.8% | 3.35 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -40.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 70.2% | 1.43 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +22.8% | |
| X2 | 83.7% | 1.19 | 1.25 | 80.0% | +4.6% | |
| 12 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.33 | 75.2% | -38.7% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Omonia Nicosia | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Celta Vigo | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.7% | 3.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 24.2% | 4.13 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 47.3% | 2.11 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -9.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.9% | 4.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 32.1% | 3.12 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.539 × 3.20 − 1 = +0.724 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.329 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DWLDWL | DDDLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-2-2 | 0-4-2 |
| Points per match | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 17% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 67% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Celta Vigo narrowly ahead at 30%; Omonia Nicosia 16%. Standings: Omonia Nicosia 18th on 6, Celta Vigo 27th on 3.
Form
Omonia Nicosia have two wins from their last six (D W L D W L). Latest: 0–0 at home to Apollon Limassol. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Celta Vigo: D D D L L D, so zero victories in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Malaga. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.5 per match.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Omonia Nicosia 1.11 · Celta Vigo 1.39 · total 2.50. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 53%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Draw, probability 54%, odds 3.20 v fair 1.86. Most probable score: Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Celta Vigo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?
The Model pick is Draw with a model probability of 54, priced around 3.20 by the bookmakers.
What are the Omonia Nicosia v Celta Vigo probabilities?
Omonia Nicosia win 16%, draw 54%, Celta Vigo win 30%.
What is the most probable score for Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?
Omonia Nicosia 1–1 Celta Vigo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?
Omonia Nicosia 1.11, Celta Vigo 1.39 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 53%.
What time is Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 17:45 WAT, at GSP Stadium – UEFA Europa League.