- λ home
- 2.18
- λ away
- 0.82
- Σλ total
- 3.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 58%
- P(BTTS)
- 52%
- Modal score
- 2–0 11.8%
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia prediction & xG model: Olympiakos Piraeus to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipOlympiakos Piraeus to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (31 and 39 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus (home) | 1.66 | 1.23 | 0.69 | 1.41 |
| Jagiellonia (away) | 1.38 | 1.30 | 0.48 | 0.85 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.23 × 0.69 ≈ 1.41
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.26 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.18, λaway = 0.82
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 18.7%
- Σ away-win cells
- 12.8%
- Most probable score
- 2–0 · 11.8%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Olympiakos Piraeus | 49.0% | 69.0% | 67.7% | 68.5% |
| X Draw | 28.7% | 18.0% | 20.0% | 18.8% |
| 2 Jagiellonia | 22.3% | 13.0% | 12.3% | 12.7% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.086 → 8.6% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Olympiakos Piraeus pick | 68.5% | 1.46 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -6.9% | |
| X · Draw | 18.8% | 5.31 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -13.3% | |
| 2 · Jagiellonia | 12.7% | 7.88 | 7.50 | 13.3% | -4.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 87.3% | 1.15 | 1.08 | 92.6% | -5.7% | |
| X2 | 31.5% | 3.17 | 3.00 | 33.3% | -5.4% | |
| 12 | 81.2% | 1.23 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -4.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Olympiakos Piraeus | 84.4% | 1.19 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Jagiellonia | 15.6% | 6.39 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.02 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | 1.85 | 54.1% | -3.6% | |
| BTTS no | 47.9% | 2.09 | 1.91 | 52.4% | -8.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 36.8% | 2.72 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.6% | 7.36 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.685 × 1.36 − 1 = -0.069 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Olympiakos Piraeus | Jagiellonia |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDWWW | LWLWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 4-0-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Olympiakos Piraeus 68% to win. Standings: Olympiakos Piraeus 6th on 10, Jagiellonia 29th on 3.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus have four wins from their last six (L W D W W W). Latest: 0–1 at home to OFI. Per match: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Jagiellonia have four wins from their last six (L W L W W W). Latest: 0–2 away at Wisla Krakow. Scoring rate: 2.3 per match – well above average.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.18 · Jagiellonia 0.82 · total 3.00. Goals expected – 58% for over 2.5 and 52% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Olympiakos Piraeus to win, probability 68%, odds 1.36 v fair 1.46. Most probable score: Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Jagiellonia. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia?
The Model pick is Olympiakos Piraeus to win with a model probability of 68, priced around 1.36 by the bookmakers.
What are the Olympiakos Piraeus v Jagiellonia probabilities?
Olympiakos Piraeus win 68%, draw 19%, Jagiellonia win 13%.
What is the most probable score for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2–0 Jagiellonia is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2.18, Jagiellonia 0.82 – over 2.5 at 58%, BTTS at 52%.
What time is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Jagiellonia?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 20:00 WAT, at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium – UEFA Europa League.