- λ home
- 2.23
- λ away
- 1.94
- Σλ total
- 4.17
- P(over 2.5)
- 79%
- P(BTTS)
- 65%
- Modal score
- 2–1 7.4%
AC Milan vs Benfica prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
AC Milan v Benfica: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for AC Milan v Benfica are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (29 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan (home) | 1.66 | 1.36 | 0.57 | 1.29 |
| Benfica (away) | 1.38 | 2.14 | 0.70 | 2.08 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.36 × 0.57 ≈ 1.29
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.37 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 4.17 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 4.17 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 2.23, λaway = 1.94
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 45.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 34.6%
- Most probable score
- 2–1 · 7.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 AC Milan | 23.1% | 18.0% | 44.2% | 29.0% |
| X Draw | 22.0% | 71.0% | 27.3% | 52.6% |
| 2 Benfica | 54.9% | 11.0% | 28.5% | 18.4% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.078 → 7.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · AC Milan | 29.0% | 3.45 | 2.10 | 47.6% | -39.1% | |
| X · Draw | 52.6% | 1.90 | 3.40 | 29.4% | +79.0% | |
| 2 · Benfica | 18.4% | 5.44 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -40.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.30 | 76.9% | +6.1% | |
| X2 | 71.0% | 1.41 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +24.3% | |
| 12 | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -38.4% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB AC Milan | 61.2% | 1.63 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Benfica | 38.8% | 2.58 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 92.0% | 1.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 8.0% | 12.52 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 59.9% | 1.67 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 65.2% | 1.53 | 1.62 | 61.7% | +5.6% | |
| BTTS no | 34.8% | 2.87 | 2.25 | 44.4% | -21.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 37.1% | 2.69 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 32.4% | 3.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 30.4% | 3.29 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.652 × 1.62 − 1 = +0.056 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.091 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | AC Milan | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DDWWWL | WWWWWW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 6-0-0 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.83 | 3.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% |
| BTTS | 67% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
AC Milan ahead at 29%, against 18% for Benfica and 53% for the draw. Standings: AC Milan 28th on 3, Benfica 1st on 12.
Form
AC Milan, last six: D D W W W L – three wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Lazio. Per match: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Benfica have six wins from their last six (W W W W W W). Latest: 3–1 at home to GIL Vicente. 3.0 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG AC Milan 2.23 · Benfica 1.94 · total 4.17. Goals expected – 79% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 65%, odds 1.62 v fair 1.53. Most probable score: AC Milan 2–2 Benfica. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for AC Milan vs Benfica?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 65, priced around 1.62 by the bookmakers.
What are the AC Milan v Benfica probabilities?
AC Milan win 29%, draw 53%, Benfica win 18%.
What is the most probable score for AC Milan vs Benfica?
AC Milan 2–2 Benfica is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for AC Milan vs Benfica?
AC Milan 2.23, Benfica 1.94 – over 2.5 at 79%, BTTS at 65%.
What time is AC Milan vs Benfica?
Wednesday 16 September 2026, 20:00 WAT, at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza – UEFA Europa League.