- λ home
- 1.62
- λ away
- 0.38
- Σλ total
- 2.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 50%
- Modal score
- 1–0 21.9%
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
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How the numbers for Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (30 and 32 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise (home) | 1.66 | 1.81 | 0.80 | 2.42 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva (away) | 1.38 | 1.24 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.81 × 0.80 ≈ 2.42
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.34 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.62, λaway = 0.38
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 68.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 23.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 8.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 21.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Union St. Gilloise | 69.7% | 72.0% | 70.8% | 71.5% |
| X Draw | 18.0% | 16.0% | 18.4% | 17.0% |
| 2 Hapoel Beer Sheva | 12.4% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.087 → 8.7% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Union St. Gilloise | 71.5% | 1.40 | 1.30 | 76.9% | -7.1% | |
| X · Draw | 17.0% | 5.88 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -15.0% | |
| 2 · Hapoel Beer Sheva | 11.5% | 8.69 | 8.50 | 11.8% | -2.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.5% | 1.13 | 1.07 | 93.5% | -5.3% | |
| X2 | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.30 | 30.3% | -5.9% | |
| 12 | 83.0% | 1.20 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Union St. Gilloise | 86.1% | 1.16 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Hapoel Beer Sheva | 13.9% | 7.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 50.3% | 1.99 | 1.75 | 57.1% | -12.0% | |
| BTTS no | 49.7% | 2.01 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -0.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.6% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 8.1% | 12.38 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.503 × 1.75 − 1 = -0.120 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Union St. Gilloise | Hapoel Beer Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDDWWW | WLWWDW |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per match | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / match | 2.50 | 1.33 |
| Goals against / match | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% |
| BTTS | 33% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Union St. Gilloise at 71%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Union St. Gilloise 4th on 10, Hapoel Beer Sheva 33rd on 1.
Form
Union St. Gilloise have four wins from their last six (W D D W W W). Latest: 3–0 at home to Nijlen. 2.5 goals a match in that spell. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Hapoel Beer Sheva have four wins from their last six (W L W W D W). Latest: 2–1 at home to Hapoel Katamon. Per match: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded. 4 shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Union St. Gilloise 1.62 · Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.38 · total 2.00. Low total: under 2.5 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 50%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.99. Most probable score: Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 50, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Union St. Gilloise v Hapoel Beer Sheva probabilities?
Union St. Gilloise win 71%, draw 17%, Hapoel Beer Sheva win 12%.
What is the most probable score for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Union St. Gilloise 1.62, Hapoel Beer Sheva 0.38 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 50%.
What time is Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Merkur Spielarena – UEFA Europa League.