- λ home
- 1.87
- λ away
- 0.88
- Σλ total
- 2.75
- P(over 2.5)
- 52%
- P(BTTS)
- 59%
- Modal score
- 1–0 11.9%
Juventus vs Rennes prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Juventus v Rennes: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
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How the numbers for Juventus v Rennes are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (28 and 28 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus (home) | 1.66 | 1.18 | 1.06 | 2.08 |
| Rennes (away) | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.60 | 1.09 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.18 × 1.06 ≈ 2.08
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.17 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.75 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.75 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.87, λaway = 0.88
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 22.2%
- Σ away-win cells
- 17.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 11.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Juventus | 59.3% | 62.0% | 58.9% | 60.7% |
| X Draw | 21.7% | 21.0% | 22.8% | 21.8% |
| 2 Rennes | 19.0% | 17.0% | 18.3% | 17.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.095 → 9.5% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Juventus | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.55 | 64.5% | -5.9% | |
| X · Draw | 21.8% | 4.59 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -12.9% | |
| 2 · Rennes | 17.5% | 5.70 | 5.00 | 20.0% | -12.3% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 82.5% | 1.21 | 1.15 | 87.0% | -5.2% | |
| X2 | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.30 | 43.5% | -9.6% | |
| 12 | 78.2% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Juventus | 77.6% | 1.29 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Rennes | 22.4% | 4.46 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 48.1% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +3.8% | |
| BTTS no | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -18.6% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 43.5% | 2.30 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 16.4% | 6.10 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.593 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.038 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.051 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.3% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Juventus | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | LWDLWW | LWWLLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% |
| BTTS | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Juventus 61% to win. Standings: Juventus 5th on 10, Rennes 17th on 6.
Form
Juventus have three wins from their last six (L W D L W W). Latest: 0–3 at home to Lazio. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Sequence for Rennes: L W W L L D, so two victories in six. Latest: 3–4 away at Paris FC. Per match: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Juventus 1.87 · Rennes 0.88 · total 2.75. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 52%, BTTS 59%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 59%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.69. Most probable score: Juventus 2–1 Rennes. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Juventus vs Rennes?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Juventus v Rennes probabilities?
Juventus win 61%, draw 22%, Rennes win 18%.
What is the most probable score for Juventus vs Rennes?
Juventus 2–1 Rennes is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Juventus vs Rennes?
Juventus 1.87, Rennes 0.88 – over 2.5 at 52%, BTTS at 59%.
What time is Juventus vs Rennes?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Allianz Stadium – UEFA Europa League.