- λ home
- 0.74
- λ away
- 1.93
- Σλ total
- 2.67
- P(over 2.5)
- 50%
- P(BTTS)
- 54%
- Modal score
- 0–1 13.4%
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction & xG model: AZ Alkmaar to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipAZ Alkmaar to win✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (38 and 35 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ararat-Armenia (home) | 1.66 | 1.17 | 0.68 | 1.31 |
| AZ Alkmaar (away) | 1.38 | 1.51 | 0.76 | 1.59 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.17 × 0.68 ≈ 1.31
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.90 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.67 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.67 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 0.74, λaway = 1.93
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 13.5%
- Σ draw cells
- 20.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 65.6%
- Most probable score
- 0–1 · 13.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Ararat-Armenia | 31.1% | 11.0% | 16.9% | 13.5% |
| X Draw | 25.6% | 20.0% | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| 2 AZ Alkmaar | 43.3% | 69.0% | 60.9% | 65.6% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.074 → 7.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Ararat-Armenia | 13.5% | 7.41 | 5.50 | 18.2% | -25.8% | |
| X · Draw | 20.9% | 4.78 | 4.20 | 23.8% | -12.2% | |
| 2 · AZ Alkmaar pick | 65.6% | 1.52 | 1.53 | 65.4% | +0.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 34.4% | 2.91 | 2.45 | 40.8% | -15.7% | |
| X2 | 86.5% | 1.16 | 1.14 | 87.7% | -1.4% | |
| 12 | 79.1% | 1.26 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -5.1% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Ararat-Armenia | 17.1% | 5.86 | – | – | – | |
| DNB AZ Alkmaar | 82.9% | 1.21 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 25.4% | 3.93 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 49.9% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 50.1% | 2.00 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | 1.70 | 58.8% | -7.9% | |
| BTTS no | 45.8% | 2.18 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -1.4% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 13.5% | 7.42 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 40.0% | 2.50 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 46.5% | 2.15 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.656 × 1.53 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.007 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Ararat-Armenia | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDWLW | DWLWLD |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-2-2 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
AZ Alkmaar favoured on the road at 66% – the ratings gap outweighs home advantage. Standings: Ararat-Armenia 36th on 0, AZ Alkmaar 14th on 6.
Form
Ararat-Armenia, last six: W L D W L W – three wins in total. Latest: 1–0 away at BKMA. Per match: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded.
AZ Alkmaar, last six: D W L W L D – two wins in total. Latest: 2–2 away at Cambuur. Per match: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Ararat-Armenia 0.74 · AZ Alkmaar 1.93 · total 2.67. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 50%, BTTS 54%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: AZ Alkmaar to win, probability 66%, odds 1.53 v fair 1.52. Most probable score: Ararat-Armenia 0–1 AZ Alkmaar. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
The Model pick is AZ Alkmaar to win with a model probability of 66, priced around 1.53 by the bookmakers.
What are the Ararat-Armenia v AZ Alkmaar probabilities?
Ararat-Armenia win 13%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar win 66%.
What is the most probable score for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ararat-Armenia 0–1 AZ Alkmaar is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ararat-Armenia 0.74, AZ Alkmaar 1.93 – over 2.5 at 50%, BTTS at 54%.
What time is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium – UEFA Europa League.