- λ home
- 1.47
- λ away
- 0.53
- Σλ total
- 2.00
- P(over 2.5)
- 32%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 19.9%
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen prediction & xG model: Dinamo Zagreb to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 2–4
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipDinamo Zagreb to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (37 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb (home) | 1.66 | 1.83 | 0.87 | 2.66 |
| NEC Nijmegen (away) | 1.38 | 1.33 | 0.62 | 1.14 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.83 × 0.87 ≈ 2.66
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.81 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 2.00 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.47, λaway = 0.53
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 60.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 26.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 13.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 19.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dinamo Zagreb | 69.2% | 67.0% | 56.5% | 62.6% |
| X Draw | 16.9% | 21.0% | 23.3% | 22.0% |
| 2 NEC Nijmegen | 13.9% | 12.0% | 20.3% | 15.5% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.073 → 7.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Dinamo Zagreb pick | 62.6% | 1.60 | 1.65 | 60.6% | +3.2% | |
| X · Draw | 22.0% | 4.55 | 4.00 | 25.0% | -12.2% | |
| 2 · NEC Nijmegen | 15.5% | 6.47 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -28.9% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -0.2% | |
| X2 | 37.4% | 2.67 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -17.7% | |
| 12 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -4.8% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Dinamo Zagreb | 80.2% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB NEC Nijmegen | 19.8% | 5.05 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 40.6% | 2.46 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 14.3% | 7.00 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 85.7% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.0% | 1.96 | 1.57 | 63.7% | -20.0% | |
| BTTS no | 49.0% | 2.04 | 2.38 | 42.0% | +16.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.3% | 2.48 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 48.0% | 2.08 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.7% | 8.53 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.626 × 1.65 − 1 = +0.032 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.050 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 1.2% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Dinamo Zagreb | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWWD | DDDDLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 4-1-1 | 0-4-2 |
| Points per match | 2.17 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / match | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 2.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% |
| BTTS | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Dinamo Zagreb at 63%: ratings and home advantage combine into a clear edge. Standings: Dinamo Zagreb 9th on 7, NEC Nijmegen 12th on 7.
Form
Sequence for Dinamo Zagreb: W W L W W D, so four victories in six. Latest: 5–1 away at NK Slaven Belupo. 2.3 goals a match in that spell. 3 shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for NEC Nijmegen: D D D D L L, so zero victories in six. Latest: 2–2 at home to Fortuna Sittard. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.8 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Dinamo Zagreb 1.47 · NEC Nijmegen 0.53 · total 2.00. Low total: under 2.5 68%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Dinamo Zagreb to win, probability 63%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.60. Most probable score: Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NEC Nijmegen. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
The Model pick is Dinamo Zagreb to win with a model probability of 63, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen probabilities?
Dinamo Zagreb win 63%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NEC Nijmegen is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Dinamo Zagreb 1.47, NEC Nijmegen 0.53 – over 2.5 at 32%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Stadion Maksimir – UEFA Europa League.