- λ home
- 1.30
- λ away
- 2.33
- Σλ total
- 3.63
- P(over 2.5)
- 70%
- P(BTTS)
- 64%
- Modal score
- 1–2 9.4%
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction & xG model: Both teams to score
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick landed ✓
Lech Poznan v Sunderland: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBoth teams to score✓
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Lech Poznan v Sunderland are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to all competitions results (40 and 31 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan (home) | 1.66 | 1.71 | 0.66 | 1.87 |
| Sunderland (away) | 1.38 | 1.14 | 0.76 | 1.19 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.66 × 1.71 × 0.66 ≈ 1.87
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 3.06 | 64% |
| Statistical xG feed | 3.63 | 36% |
| Blended total λ | 3.63 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.30, λaway = 2.33
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 20.4%
- Σ draw cells
- 19.3%
- Σ away-win cells
- 60.3%
- Most probable score
- 1–2 · 9.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Lech Poznan | 52.5% | 20.0% | 20.3% | 20.1% |
| X Draw | 23.6% | 17.0% | 23.9% | 19.9% |
| 2 Sunderland | 23.9% | 63.0% | 55.8% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.073 → 7.3% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Lech Poznan | 20.1% | 4.97 | 4.60 | 21.7% | -7.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.9% | 5.03 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -22.4% | |
| 2 · Sunderland | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.67 | 59.9% | +0.2% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -12.0% | |
| X2 | 79.9% | 1.25 | 1.18 | 84.7% | -5.7% | |
| 12 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.22 | 82.0% | -2.3% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Lech Poznan | 25.1% | 3.98 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Sunderland | 74.9% | 1.34 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 12.3% | 8.15 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | – | – | – | |
| Under 2.5 | 29.7% | 3.36 | – | – | – | |
| Over 3.5 | 49.1% | 2.04 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes pick | 64.4% | 1.55 | 1.75 | 57.1% | +12.6% | |
| BTTS no | 35.6% | 2.81 | 2.00 | 50.0% | -28.7% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 20.2% | 4.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 45.7% | 2.19 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.644 × 1.75 − 1 = +0.126 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.168 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Lech Poznan | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLWDWL | LWLLWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-1-2 | 2-0-4 |
| Points per match | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 2.83 | 1.00 |
| Goals against / match | 2.17 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Sunderland narrowly ahead at 60%; Lech Poznan 20%. Standings: Lech Poznan 35th on 1, Sunderland 11th on 7.
Form
Sequence for Lech Poznan: W L W D W L, so three victories in six. Latest: 6–1 at home to Korona Kielce. 2.8 goals a match in that spell. No shut-outs in that run.
Sequence for Sunderland: L W L L W L, so two victories in six. Latest: 0–2 away at Bournemouth. Per match: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Lech Poznan 1.30 · Sunderland 2.33 · total 3.63. Goals expected – 70% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Both teams to score, probability 64%, odds 1.75 v fair 1.55. Most probable score: Lech Poznan 1–2 Sunderland. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
UEFA Europa League table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
The Model pick is Both teams to score with a model probability of 64, priced around 1.75 by the bookmakers.
What are the Lech Poznan v Sunderland probabilities?
Lech Poznan win 20%, draw 20%, Sunderland win 60%.
What is the most probable score for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznan 1–2 Sunderland is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
Lech Poznan 1.30, Sunderland 2.33 – over 2.5 at 70%, BTTS at 64%.
What time is Lech Poznan vs Sunderland?
Thursday 22 October 2026, 17:45 WAT, at Stadion Miejski – UEFA Europa League.