- λ home
- 1.58
- λ away
- 0.65
- Σλ total
- 2.23
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 40%
- Modal score
- 1–0 17.0%
Villa Valle vs Fiorenzuola prediction & xG model: Villa Valle to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Villa Valle v Fiorenzuola: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipVilla Valle to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Villa Valle v Fiorenzuola are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (20 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villa Valle (home) | 1.51 | 0.96 | 0.87 | 1.26 |
| Fiorenzuola (away) | 1.16 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.61 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.96 × 0.87 ≈ 1.26
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 1.86 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.00 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.43 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.23 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.58, λaway = 0.65
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 59.9%
- Σ draw cells
- 25.0%
- Σ away-win cells
- 15.2%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 17.0%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Villa Valle | 51.1% | 68.0% | 48.6% | 59.9% |
| X Draw | 31.4% | 23.0% | 27.7% | 25.0% |
| 2 Fiorenzuola | 17.4% | 9.0% | 23.7% | 15.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.111 → 11.1% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Villa Valle pick | 59.9% | 1.67 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +10.8% | |
| X · Draw | 25.0% | 4.01 | 3.25 | 30.8% | -18.9% | |
| 2 · Fiorenzuola | 15.2% | 6.59 | 3.80 | 26.3% | -42.4% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 84.8% | 1.18 | 1.18 | 84.7% | +0.1% | |
| X2 | 40.1% | 2.49 | 1.80 | 55.6% | -27.8% | |
| 12 | 75.0% | 1.33 | 1.25 | 80.0% | -6.2% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Villa Valle | 79.8% | 1.25 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Fiorenzuola | 20.2% | 4.95 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.7% | 2.88 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.15 | 46.5% | -11.5% | |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | 1.67 | 59.9% | -1.7% | |
| Over 3.5 | 18.7% | 5.34 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 81.3% | 1.23 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 39.5% | 2.53 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 60.5% | 1.65 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 41.1% | 2.44 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 45.3% | 2.21 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 13.6% | 7.33 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.599 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.108 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.127 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Villa Valle | Fiorenzuola |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WLDDDL | DLLLL |
| Matches | 6 | 5 |
| W-D-L | 1-3-2 | 0-1-4 |
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 0.20 |
| Goals against / match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% |
| BTTS | 83% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 80% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Villa Valle ahead at 60%, against 15% for Fiorenzuola and 25% for the draw. Standings: Villa Valle 7th on 17, Fiorenzuola 17th on 6.
Form
Villa Valle, last six: W L D D D L – one win in total. Latest: 2–1 away at Leon. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded.
Fiorenzuola have zero wins from their last five (D L L L L). Latest: 1–1 at home to Caldiero Terme. The scoring rate has dropped to 0.2 per match. No shut-outs in that run.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Villa Valle 1.58 · Fiorenzuola 0.65 · total 2.23. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 40%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Villa Valle to win, probability 60%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.67. Most probable score: Villa Valle 1–0 Fiorenzuola. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Villa Valle vs Fiorenzuola?
The Model pick is Villa Valle to win with a model probability of 60, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Villa Valle v Fiorenzuola probabilities?
Villa Valle win 60%, draw 25%, Fiorenzuola win 15%.
What is the most probable score for Villa Valle vs Fiorenzuola?
Villa Valle 1–0 Fiorenzuola is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Villa Valle vs Fiorenzuola?
Villa Valle 1.58, Fiorenzuola 0.65 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 40%.
What time is Villa Valle vs Fiorenzuola?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.