- λ home
- 1.79
- λ away
- 0.60
- Σλ total
- 2.39
- P(over 2.5)
- 46%
- P(BTTS)
- 41%
- Modal score
- 1–0 16.4%
Piacenza vs Scanzorosciate prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Piacenza v Scanzorosciate: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 4–0
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Piacenza v Scanzorosciate are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 20 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piacenza (home) | 1.51 | 1.28 | 0.87 | 1.68 |
| Scanzorosciate (away) | 1.16 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 0.87 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 1.28 × 0.87 ≈ 1.68
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.55 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.11 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.62 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.39 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.79, λaway = 0.60
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 66.3%
- Σ draw cells
- 21.9%
- Σ away-win cells
- 11.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 16.4%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Piacenza | 55.7% | 67.0% | 64.1% | 65.8% |
| X Draw | 25.4% | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.0% |
| 2 Scanzorosciate | 18.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 11.2% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.114 → 11.4% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Piacenza | 65.8% | 1.52 | 1.40 | 71.4% | -7.9% | |
| X · Draw | 23.0% | 4.35 | 3.90 | 25.6% | -10.3% | |
| 2 · Scanzorosciate | 11.2% | 8.94 | 7.00 | 14.3% | -21.7% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 88.8% | 1.13 | 1.10 | 90.9% | -2.3% | |
| X2 | 34.2% | 2.92 | 2.40 | 41.7% | -17.9% | |
| 12 | 77.0% | 1.30 | 1.20 | 83.3% | -7.6% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Piacenza | 85.5% | 1.17 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Scanzorosciate | 14.5% | 6.88 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 45.7% | 2.19 | 1.95 | 51.3% | -10.9% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 54.3% | 1.84 | 1.85 | 54.1% | +0.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 21.9% | 4.57 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 78.1% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 41.2% | 2.43 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 58.8% | 1.70 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 45.9% | 2.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.6% | 2.35 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 11.6% | 8.66 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.543 × 1.85 − 1 = +0.004 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.005 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.1% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Piacenza | Scanzorosciate |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WDLWWD | DLLDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-2-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per match | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / match | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals against / match | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Strong home favourites – Piacenza 66% to win. Standings: Piacenza 4th on 21, Scanzorosciate 9th on 14.
Form
Piacenza, last six: W D L W W D – three wins in total. Latest: 3–1 at home to Real Calepina. Per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
Sequence for Scanzorosciate: D L L D W L, so one victory in six. Latest: 1–1 at home to Pro Palazzolo. Only 0.5 goals a match in that spell.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Piacenza 1.79 · Scanzorosciate 0.60 · total 2.39. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 46%, BTTS 41%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 54%, odds 1.85 v fair 1.84. Most probable score: Piacenza 1–0 Scanzorosciate. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Piacenza vs Scanzorosciate?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 54, priced around 1.85 by the bookmakers.
What are the Piacenza v Scanzorosciate probabilities?
Piacenza win 66%, draw 23%, Scanzorosciate win 11%.
What is the most probable score for Piacenza vs Scanzorosciate?
Piacenza 1–0 Scanzorosciate is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Piacenza vs Scanzorosciate?
Piacenza 1.79, Scanzorosciate 0.60 – over 2.5 at 46%, BTTS at 41%.
What time is Piacenza vs Scanzorosciate?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.