- λ home
- 1.04
- λ away
- 1.22
- Σλ total
- 2.26
- P(over 2.5)
- 41%
- P(BTTS)
- 44%
- Modal score
- 1–1 13.2%
Club Milano vs Leon prediction & xG model: Under 2.5 goals
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Club Milano v Leon: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 1–2
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipUnder 2.5 goals✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
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How the numbers for Club Milano v Leon are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (11 and 22 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Milano (home) | 1.51 | 0.83 | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| Leon (away) | 1.16 | 1.20 | 0.98 | 1.36 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.83 × 0.96 ≈ 1.20
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.56 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.10 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.39 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.26 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.04, λaway = 1.22
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 31.1%
- Σ draw cells
- 28.5%
- Σ away-win cells
- 40.4%
- Most probable score
- 1–1 · 13.2%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Club Milano | 32.2% | 35.0% | 32.7% | 34.0% |
| X Draw | 27.8% | 18.0% | 29.0% | 22.6% |
| 2 Leon | 40.0% | 47.0% | 38.3% | 43.3% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.112 → 11.2% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Club Milano | 34.0% | 2.94 | 2.75 | 36.4% | -6.4% | |
| X · Draw | 22.6% | 4.42 | 3.10 | 32.3% | -29.9% | |
| 2 · Leon | 43.3% | 2.31 | 2.35 | 42.6% | +1.8% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 56.7% | 1.76 | 1.50 | 66.7% | -15.0% | |
| X2 | 66.0% | 1.52 | 1.36 | 73.5% | -10.3% | |
| 12 | 77.4% | 1.29 | 1.28 | 78.1% | -1.0% | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Club Milano | 44.0% | 2.27 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Leon | 56.0% | 1.79 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | – | – | – | |
| Under 1.5 | 34.0% | 2.94 | – | – | – | |
| Over 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.20 | 45.5% | -9.6% | |
| Under 2.5 pick | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.65 | 60.6% | -2.8% | |
| Over 3.5 | 19.3% | 5.19 | – | – | – | |
| Under 3.5 | 80.7% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 43.8% | 2.28 | – | – | – | |
| BTTS no | 56.2% | 1.78 | – | – | – | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 23.9% | 4.18 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 46.7% | 2.14 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 29.5% | 3.40 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.589 × 1.65 − 1 = -0.028 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.000 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 0.0% of bankroll (no stake – the price has no edge)
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Club Milano | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | DLLWLW | LDDDWL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 2-1-3 | 1-3-2 |
| Points per match | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / match | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 17% | 50% |
| BTTS | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% |
| Failed to score | 50% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Marginal away preference, 43% against 34%. Standings: Club Milano 13th on 11, Leon 5th on 21.
Form
Sequence for Club Milano: D L L W L W, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Virtus Ciserano Bergamo. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded.
Leon, last six: L D D D W L – one win in total. Latest: 1–2 at home to Villa Valle. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Club Milano 1.04 · Leon 1.22 · total 2.26. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 41%, BTTS 44%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Under 2.5 goals, probability 59%, odds 1.65 v fair 1.70. Most probable score: Club Milano 0–1 Leon. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Club Milano vs Leon?
The Model pick is Under 2.5 goals with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.65 by the bookmakers.
What are the Club Milano v Leon probabilities?
Club Milano win 34%, draw 23%, Leon win 43%.
What is the most probable score for Club Milano vs Leon?
Club Milano 0–1 Leon is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Club Milano vs Leon?
Club Milano 1.04, Leon 1.22 – over 2.5 at 41%, BTTS at 44%.
What time is Club Milano vs Leon?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.