- λ home
- 1.68
- λ away
- 0.89
- Σλ total
- 2.57
- P(over 2.5)
- 47%
- P(BTTS)
- 51%
- Modal score
- 1–0 12.9%
Brusaporto vs Pro Palazzolo prediction & xG model: Brusaporto to win
Graded on the 90-minute score: the pick missed ✗
Brusaporto v Pro Palazzolo: how the Arena called it
- Full time
- 0–1
- Votes
- 0
- Takes
- 0
- Back / fade
- 0 / 0
- Arena tipBrusaporto to win✗
- VotersNobody called this one–
Your call Voting closed at kick-off
This debate is closed. The takes below stay up as a record of what the Arena said.
Takes
- No takes yet. Say what you think – the first take sits at the top.
Takes are opinions from Winning Arena visitors, not our tips. Be respectful: no insults, links, phone numbers or tip-selling. Report anything that breaks the rules and it is hidden for review.
How the numbers for Brusaporto v Pro Palazzolo are calculated
Every figure on this page comes from the steps below – nothing is adjusted by hand.
Expected goals (λ)
Ratings fitted to league results (21 and 11 matches). 1.00 = average attack or defence.
| League avg goals | Attack | Opp. defence | λ (ratings) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brusaporto (home) | 1.51 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 1.25 |
| Pro Palazzolo (away) | 1.16 | 0.86 | 1.12 | 1.11 |
λhome = μhome × Atthome × Defaway = 1.51 × 0.79 × 1.05 ≈ 1.25
| Total-goals source | Estimate | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Team ratings | 2.37 | 45% |
| Statistical xG feed | 2.60 | 25% |
| Over/under 2.5 price | 2.55 | 30% |
| Blended total λ | 2.57 | 100% |
Split by team strength and the 1X2 balance → λhome = 1.68, λaway = 0.89
Poisson goal distributions
P(k goals) = e−λ · λk ÷ k!
Score grid
Each cell = P(home goals) × P(away goals). Below the diagonal is a home win, the diagonal a draw, above it an away win.
- Σ home-win cells
- 56.2%
- Σ draw cells
- 24.1%
- Σ away-win cells
- 19.7%
- Most probable score
- 1–0 · 12.9%
Blending with the market
Our ratings grid is combined with the statistical feed (60 / 40), then blended with the bookmaker's margin-free probabilities (58 / 42) so late team news is not missed.
| Outcome | Ratings | Feed | Market* | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Brusaporto | 38.6% | 64.0% | 51.0% | 58.5% |
| X Draw | 29.3% | 15.0% | 25.5% | 19.4% |
| 2 Pro Palazzolo | 32.1% | 21.0% | 23.5% | 22.0% |
Bookmaker margin (overround) on 1X2: Σ(1 ÷ odds) = 1.048 → 4.8% removed before blending (*market column).
Every market: fair odds, implied probability and EV
Fair odds = 1 ÷ p · Implied = 1 ÷ odds (margin included) · EV = p × odds − 1 · positive EV only when p > implied
| Selection | p | Fair | Best odds | Implied | EV | Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ||||||
| 1 · Brusaporto pick | 58.5% | 1.71 | 1.87 | 53.5% | +9.5% | |
| X · Draw | 19.4% | 5.15 | 3.74 | 26.7% | -27.4% | |
| 2 · Pro Palazzolo | 22.0% | 4.54 | 4.06 | 24.6% | -10.5% | |
| Double chance | ||||||
| 1X | 78.0% | 1.28 | – | – | – | |
| X2 | 41.5% | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
| 12 | 80.6% | 1.24 | – | – | – | |
| Draw no bet | ||||||
| DNB Brusaporto | 72.6% | 1.38 | – | – | – | |
| DNB Pro Palazzolo | 27.4% | 3.66 | – | – | – | |
| Goal lines | ||||||
| Over 1.5 | 71.2% | 1.40 | 1.34 | 74.6% | -4.6% | |
| Under 1.5 | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3.08 | 32.5% | -11.3% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.03 | 49.3% | -4.3% | |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.79 | 55.9% | -5.4% | |
| Over 3.5 | 26.3% | 3.80 | 3.46 | 28.9% | -8.9% | |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | 1.27 | 78.7% | -6.4% | |
| Both teams to score | ||||||
| BTTS yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -2.5% | |
| BTTS no | 48.7% | 2.05 | 1.90 | 52.6% | -7.5% | |
| Half-time | ||||||
| HT 1 | 40.1% | 2.49 | – | – | – | |
| HT X | 42.3% | 2.36 | – | – | – | |
| HT 2 | 17.6% | 5.68 | – | – | – | |
The selection
EV = 0.585 × 1.87 − 1 = +0.095 · Kelly f* = (b·p − q) ÷ b = 0.109 → quarter-Kelly, capped at 2%: 2.0% of bankroll
A guide to sizing, not advice. Graded on the 90-minute score. 18+.
Recent form, in numbers
last 6 matches · 90-minute scores| Metric | Brusaporto | Pro Palazzolo |
|---|---|---|
| Sequence | WWLWLL | DLWWLL |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W-D-L | 3-0-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / match | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Goals against / match | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| BTTS | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% |
What the numbers say
by Ade Ola, Winning Arena analyst1X2 probabilities
Slight home preference: Brusaporto 59%, draw 19%, Pro Palazzolo 22%. Standings: Brusaporto 16th on 9, Pro Palazzolo 10th on 14.
Form
Brusaporto have three wins from their last six (W W L W L L). Latest: 3–2 away at Real Calepina. Per match: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded.
Sequence for Pro Palazzolo: D L W W L L, so two victories in six. Latest: 1–1 away at Scanzorosciate. Per match: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded.
Expected goals (xG)
xG Brusaporto 1.68 · Pro Palazzolo 0.89 · total 2.57. Balanced goal lines: over 2.5 47%, BTTS 51%.
Model selection (graded)
Pre-match selection: Brusaporto to win, probability 59%, odds 1.87 v fair 1.71. Most probable score: Brusaporto 1–0 Pro Palazzolo. Graded at 90 minutes. 18+ – bet within your means.
Head-to-head
Every meeting →No previous meeting in our data.
Serie D Girone B table
League page →| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chievo | 11 | +16 | 25 |
| 2 |  Nibbiano & Valtidone | 11 | +9 | 25 |
| 3 |  Milan II | 11 | +6 | 23 |
| 4 |  Piacenza | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 5 |  Leon | 11 | +6 | 21 |
| 6 |  Caldiero Terme | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Villa Valle | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 8 |  Pavonese | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Scanzorosciate | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 |  Pro Palazzolo | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Real Calepina | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 |  Virtus Verona | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 |  Club Milano | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 |  Rovato Vertovese | 11 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 |  Brusaporto | 11 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 |  Fiorenzuola | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Tritium | 11 | -10 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone B predictions
League page →Frequently asked questions
What is the Winning Arena prediction for Brusaporto vs Pro Palazzolo?
The Model pick is Brusaporto to win with a model probability of 59, priced around 1.87 by the bookmakers.
What are the Brusaporto v Pro Palazzolo probabilities?
Brusaporto win 59%, draw 19%, Pro Palazzolo win 22%.
What is the most probable score for Brusaporto vs Pro Palazzolo?
Brusaporto 1–0 Pro Palazzolo is the highest cell in the Poisson grid.
What is the xG for Brusaporto vs Pro Palazzolo?
Brusaporto 1.68, Pro Palazzolo 0.89 – over 2.5 at 47%, BTTS at 51%.
What time is Brusaporto vs Pro Palazzolo?
Sunday 4 October 2026, 14:00 WAT – Serie D Girone B.